Buena, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

612
FXUS61 KPHI 280731
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
331 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system will continue to impact the area
overnight followed by high pressure building in through Sunday.
This high will maintain its influence over the area into the new
work week. Another cold front will pass through the area around
mid-week, followed by a strong high pressure system building
southward in its wake through the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure south of the Delmarva Peninsula will track out to
sea later this morning and into this afternoon. Rain continues
over the area through the late night/early morning hours before
tapering off around daybreak. Patchy fog is likely once the rain
ends, mainly south and east of the Fall Line, but there should
be enough low level moisture for patchy fog in the Lehigh
Valley, northern New Jersey, and southern Poconos as well.
Skies gradually clear out later this morning into early this
afternoon as high pressure builds over the area. Another warm
and relatively humid day for late September with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and surface dew points in the mid and upper
60s.
Clear skies tonight. There is the potential for fog to develop
once again due to the clear skies and nearly calm winds, but
this will all be dependent on how much drying can occur during
the day today. Best chances will be south and east of the I-95
corridor where the most rain falls. Lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure just to our northwest will retreat slowly farther
to the northwest Monday into Monday night as two tropical
systems meander well to our southeast. At this point all
precipitation associated with these systems is expected to stay
to our south but there will be increasing cloud cover,
especially by Tuesday. However much of this cloud cover will be
of the mid and high level variety so we`ll still likely see at
least some filtered sunshine, especially Monday. Generally
expect highs in the 70s to around 80 with Tuesday being the
cooler of the two days due to more cloud cover. Lows Monday
night will range mainly from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s
south. A cold frontal passage late Tuesday into Tuesday night
will result in lows about 4-8 degrees cooler for Tuesday
night...mainly ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s north with
upper 50s to around 60 south. Northeast winds will also start to
ramp up Tuesday night, especially along the coast, due to an
increasing pressure gradient between the high to our northwest
and the tropical systems to our south. By the predawn hours of
Wednesday morning winds along the coast look to generally be 15
to 20 gusting up to 30 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The combination of a strong cold front and lingering tropical
systems well off the coast will result in a continuing tight
pressure gradient through midweek. This will result in breezy to
windy conditions along the immediate coast, with a gusty breeze
reaching areas further inland as well, but not nearly as
strong. The cold front`s passage will also bring a much cooler
air mass to the region, likely the coolest so far this season,
with highs failing to reach 70 across the region by Thursday
despite fairly copious sunshine. The nights will also turn
chilly with 40s and 50s Wednesday night and even some high 30s
in the Poconos and NW NJ by Thursday night. Wouldn`t rule out
some frost by then, at least in the colder spots. As a strong
Canadian high builds southward and overhead late in the week
into early next weekend, winds relax and temps start to
moderate, with widespread low 70s likely for highs by Saturday,
and lows at least staying clear of the 30s by then. No
precipitation is expected through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Early this morning...MVFR/IFR in rain/fog/mist/stratus. LGT/VRB
winds. Moderate confidence.
Today...MVFR/IFR conditions until 13Z or so, then VFR. Winds
become W-NW less than 10 kt, except for KACY where winds will
stay S. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...VFR initially, but VSBY restrictions in BR possible
(20 to 30 percent) after 06Z. Nearly calm winds. Low confidence
on sub-VFR conditions.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...VFR likely through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today through tonight. East
to northeast winds 10 to 15 kt will become south to southeast
later today, then west to northwest late tonight. Seas 2 to 3
feet.
Visibility restrictions in rain and fog early this morning.
Outlook...
Monday night through Thursday...Building waves and winds as
tropical systems well offshore bring fringe effects to our
waters. Waves likely exceed SCA levels starting Monday night,
peaking Wednesday then slowly diminishing starting Thursday.
Wave heights may exceed 10 feet for a few days. Winds will be
slower to ramp up but likely exceed SCA levels by Tuesday night
with gales possible later Tuesday night lasting into Thursday,
with the highest chance being Wednesday.
Rip Currents...
Today...Mainly northeasterly wind at 5-10 mph. Breaking wave
heights generally 1-2 feet. A southeasterly swell from offshore
storms starts to increase late in the afternoon. Initially, our
period is around 6 seconds but does start to increase later in
the afternoon with the potential for a longer period swell
developing at a period of around 10 seconds. Given these
factors, have opted to maintain a LOW risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at all beaches at this time.
For Monday, the increasing influence of longer period swells
around 13 to 16 seconds combined with there being multiple swell
groups will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents at all beaches. Generally expect wave
heights in the surf zone to be around 2-3 feet.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MPS
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MPS

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion