Bucksport, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

204
FXUS62 KILM 220635
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
235 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with
high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather
is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to extend into the area from the north
through the period while a trough of low pressure remains off the
coast.  Overall, expect fair, warm weather though a stray shower
could move ashore at times.  Highs today will reach the low to mid
80s with lows tonight generally in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Below normal rain chances, especially inland
*No severe storm or excessive rain threat
*Near to above normal temps
Confidence:
*High
Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Still looks
mainly dry with temps above normal for this time of year as high
pressure remains the dominant weather feature. Rain chances will
remain very limited with no risk for severe storms or excessive
rainfall. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s Tue and near 90
Wed, possibly close to the record high of 94 at Florence on Wed (Sep
24). Lows Tue night should mainly be in the mid to upper 60s and
near 70 Wed night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to above normal rain chances likely thru Sat and then near to
below normal chances starting Sat night
*Very low severe storm risk Fri/Sat
*Above normal temps thru Fri night w/ mainly near normal temps
starting Sat
*Very low risk of direct significant impacts from a potential
tropical cyclone off the SE U.S. coast this weekend
Confidence:
*Thu thru Fri Night: Moderate
*Sat thru Sun: Low
Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast this period
but some uncertainty remains, especially later in the week and over
the weekend. Increasing moisture/forcing ahead of an upper
trough/low and surface cold front to the west look to increase our
rain chances late this week but timing and amounts are still a bit
tricky. The weak front could move through Sat bringing drier
conditions and lower rain chances at least across inland areas.
Ahead of any potential frontal passage though, elevated deep
layer shear could lead to a few stronger storms depending on how
much instability can develop. There is also some indication
that a potential tropical cyclone could be located off the SE
U.S. coast this weekend so will need to keep an eye on the
tropics. At least for now we do not expect any direct significant
impacts to SE NC and NE SC thru this weekend. Otherwise, temps
should mostly be above normal through Fri night before falling
back closer to normal this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR to start off the 06Z TAF period with weak sfc high pressure,
light NE wind, and a few mid/high clouds over the area. Previous
thinking remains on track for 08Z to 12Z, with moderate confidence
for IFR stratus into early daylight hours, transitioning to MVFR in
spots through mid morning then VFR. Another day of dry weather,
partly cloudy skies, and NE winds aft about 14Z.
Extended Outlook...Early-morning low cigs/vis remain a possibility
each day. Rain chances and associated vis/cig restrictions become a
possibility from Thursday onward.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts
to become east to northeast tonight and diminish to 5 to 10 KT. Seas
of 3 to 5 FT this morning will subside to 2 to 4 FT tonight.
Tuesday through Friday...High confidence this period. High pressure
will shift offshore this period as a cold front approaches from the
west later in the week. Expect a rather weak pressure gradient thru
Wed with benign winds/seas before an uptick occurs late week but
still well below Small Craft Advisory levels.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides: Minor coastal flooding is possible during each high tide
early this week along the lower Cape Fear River.
Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for New
Hanover and Georgetown Counties today due to increasing
easterly swells partly associated with distant tropical cyclone
Gabrielle. An elevated rip risk for east and southeast facing
beaches will linger into midweek.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RJB/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion