Bucksport, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS61 KCAR 170616
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
216 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides south of the region today. A cold front
will approach Thursday and cross the region Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure will build in from the west later Friday
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High clouds are streaming into srn areas from the system over the
mid-Atlantic. CWA likely to start out mostly sunny with increasing
clouds by afternoon. Southerly flow will bring in warmer air to
inland areas with highs near 80 over the north. Low-mid 70s for
Downeast where temps will be tempered by the marine layer.
For tonight expect that fog and low stratus will move onto coast
around midnight and may work in as far north as the Danforth area by
morning. Mins will likely be coolest over central area, between
marine layer and clouds developing acrs the north in H8 theta-e
axis. Confined slight chc for showers to waters as lopres looks to
move far enuf to our south to have little impact on the Downeast
coast.
Cold front will be dropping south through Quebec Wednesday night and
latest guidance indicates boundary may be able to sneak into CWA at
the very end of the period. Afternoon maxes will be just a touch
higher on Thursday over the north with southern areas several
degrees warmer than Wednesday. Showers look to enter nwrn zones
around 18z and dropping south into nrn Aroostook by 00z Friday.
Instability appears to be only 100-300 J/kg acrs the north ahead of
the cold front with puny lapse rates so think that any thunder
chances are extremely isolated.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday Night...
Surface cold front enters far Northern Maine late Thursday
afternoon or early Thursday evening, then moves south through
the night, reaching the coast just before dawn Friday. Very
little deep moisture ahead of the front, with somewhat more
moisture behind the front, but still quite limited. Expect a
band of showers immediately with and behind the front in the
north, with the frontal shower activity gradually diminishing as
the front heads south toward the coast. Models are in pretty
good agreement on very little in the way of rain. Downeast has
less than a 10 percent chance of at least 0.1 inch of rain,
while the north has about a 20 percent chance of at least 0.1
inch. Models are in pretty good agreement on timing of the cold
front. There is still some disagreement on how much rain there
is with the front, but even the wettest models are keeping
totals under a quarter inch even in the wetter north.
Friday...
Any showers should be out of the picture by mid-morning Friday
as a much drier and cooler airmass works in from the northwest.
Looking for a mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler day with
northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph, perhaps locally up to 30 mph.
High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the far north
to around 70 Downeast. Went below NBM for midday/afternoon
dewpoints thanks to deep mixing, and went a bit higher than NBM
for winds/wind gusts.
Friday Night...
Chilly night in store Friday night. Although the pressure
gradient will be weakening as high pressure builds in from the
west, there will still be enough of a gradient, especially in
eastern portions of the area, to keep maximum decoupling from
occurring. Went with NBM over western portions of the area, but
blended in some warmer raw model temperatures over the east.
Think Saturday night has the better frost opportunity, but there
still could be some frost Friday night, mainly in the far
north/northwest portions of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday...
Sunny, crisp fall day in store Saturday, with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Still a northwest breeze, and like Friday, went
a bit breezier than NBM. Not as breezy as Saturday, though,
with gusts around 20 mph expected. Also, like Friday, lowered
dewpoints a bit due to good mixing.
Saturday Night...
High confidence in the surface high pressure moving overhead Saturday
night, setting the stage for light winds, good decoupling, and
the coolest night of the season so far for most areas. Went
cooler than NBM guidance, and went for lows in the upper 20s to
mid 30s north, and generally mid 30s Downeast. Of course, there
will be decent variability in temperatures with valley locations
being cooler. With light winds, should be some valley fog as
well.
Sunday Onward...
High pressure moves east of us, and temperatures warm back up Sunday
to Tuesday. Mid 60s to low 70s Sunday rise to mid 70s to low
80s on Tuesday. Moisture gradually returns as well, although
model agreement really falls apart Tuesday into Wednesday as to
whether we maintain a weak upper level ridge over us or get into
more unstable and wetter westerly flow. The majority of model
solutions keep us generally dry with above average temperatures
through Wednesday, and only going for 20-40 percent chance of
showers Tuesday/Wednesday, best chances in the north.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR for terminals today. PQI will experience
IFR, and possibly LIFR, vsbys thru 11z this morning. HUL may
drop to IFR between 09z and 11z this morning with BGR
experiencing MVFR in BCFG this morning.
For tonight, BHB, BGR and HUL may see MVFR/IFR restrictions as
marine layer moves in after midnight before dissipating around
12z. Light showers over nrn Aroostook terminal may bring MVFR
conditions late in the afternoon on Thursday.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday Night...For northern sites, possible several hour
period of MVFR ceilings with showers just behind a cold front.
Otherwise VFR. For southern sites like BHB/BGR, possible
MVFR/IFR in low ceilings. Winds S 5-10 kts switching to the NW
behind a cold front that moves from N to S through the area.
Friday...VFR. NW wind 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Friday Night...VFR with NW wind 5-10 kts.
Saturday...VFR with NW wind 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.
Saturday Night...VFR early, then patchy IFR in valley fog. Light winds.
Sunday...VFR. S wind 10 kts.
Sunday Night and Monday...VFR north, with possible MVFR/IFR
ceilings near the coast. S/SW wind 5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
through Thursday. Winds aob 10kts with seas 1-2 feet.
Visibilities may be reduced in patchy fog late tonight into
Thursday morning.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft through Monday.
However, NW winds 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts are expected
Friday evening, and can`t rule out conditions briefly touching
small craft levels. Seas 1 to 4 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The cold front Thursday night will not bring much in the way of
rain. Downeast has less than a 10 percent chance of at least 0.1
inch of rain, while the north has about a 20 percent chance of
at least 0.1 inch. Behind the cold front during the day Friday
and Saturday, it will be breezy with dry air. Afternoon relative
humidities both days will range from the upper 20s to around 40
percent. Friday will be the breeziest day, with surface winds
from the northwest sustained around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph
with local gusts up to 30 mph. Saturday`s winds will be
sustained 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph, still from the
northwest.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Buster/Foisy
Marine...Buster/Foisy
Fire Weather...Foisy

NWS car Office Area Forecast Discussion