Brown Summit, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS62 KRAH 141750
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through Monday. A coastal low will move
inland over eastern sections of North Carolina Tuesday and remain
over the region through midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...
Latest satellite imagery reveals an offshore low churning off the
coast of southern NC. At mid-levels, a shortwave is present along
the GA/FL coastline. At the surface, high pressure from eastern
Canada is entrenched southward across the Mid-Atlantic.
Lots of mid and high clouds will continue to be the story for the
rest of today and tonight. The offshore low is forecast to move
slightly northward over the next 18-24 hours, but still remain east-
southeast of the NC coast. Dry weather is expected overall through
tonight, though cannot rule out some isolated light rain or showers
over the eastern Coastal Plain near daybreak as the low-level
moisture transport on the northwest side of the low penetrates
inland to a degree. The deeper moisture, however, holds off until
later Mon. After highs a few degrees on either side of normal today
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, lows tonight will generally be above
normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...
* Large model spread favors low confidence forecast on rainfall
  timing, extent, and amounts, but a heavy rain signal possible
* Below normal highs favored, with gusty winds in the afternoon
The offshore low is forecast in much of the guidance to track west-
northwestward, through Mon night, perhaps reaching near Hatteras by
Tue morning. Meanwhile, the closed upper-low is expected to be over
central NC by this same time, west of the surface low.
While the general specifics are discussed above, there remains a
high degree of model spread in overall specifics on the westward
extend of the precipitation shield, timing, and expected QPF
amounts. Overall, that leads to a low confidence forecast and is
worth mentioning at the outset. That said, the current model
consensus keeps the heaviest rainfall amounts just north and east of
central NC. The 50th percentile of the LREF shows anywhere from a
trace to a quarter inch along/east of US-1. This would not be
concerning. However, there are some high-end outliers, such as the
06z ECMWF, 12z NAM NEST, and 12z GEM-RDPS, which show anywhere from
1 to 3+ inches over portions of the northeast Piedmont and central
to northern Coastal Plain. Details are likely to change as models
come into better agreement, but there does appear to be a trend
toward a potential heavy rain signal from Raleigh east to Rocky
Mount to Roanoke Rapids. Precipitable water values could reach 1.5
to 2 inches by Mon night in this region, in conjunction with deep
925-850 mb moisture transport. It would also appear that the higher
rainfall solutions have higher elevated instability above the stable
surface layer, favoring isolated storms capable of heavier rainfall
rates.
While some rain showers will be possible east of US-1 during the
early part of the day and afternoon, the best moderate and steady
showers with embedded thunder will come Mon night into early Tue as
moisture increases to the northwest of the low. Though, rainfall
amounts may be limited over the western Piedmont.
Highs will be below normal from the upper 70s west to low/mid 70s
east. Gusts out of the NE will at times reach 15 to 25 mph, possibly
up to 30 mph over the Coastal Plain as the low deepens. Lows will be
in the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...
A mid level low initially over coastal GA/SC will slowly ease
northward across our area Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will
then move into VA later this week before dissipating out through the
weekend.
At the sfc, a low will likely be hanging near or just offshore the
Outer Banks Tuesday morning. There still remains quite a bit of
spread on where exactly this low will track through Wednesday.
Consequently this adds uncertainty to potential rainfall totals and
wind gust potential. Overall, ensembles generally push the highest
anomalous moisture north into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and
Wednesday. As such, LREF ensembles are in pretty good agreement
keeping the highest QPF up into VA and areas further north. However,
some of the higher res guidance (particularly the NamNest) inches
the low a bit further west before tracking it north and pumps a bit
deeper convection and higher rain totals over central NC. This may
end up being an outlier, but its worth mentioning that there is a
non-zero chance for a bit higher rainfall totals Tuesday. By
Wednesday, the system will have drifted north and while linger rain
will be possible on the backside of the low, the overall QPF should
be lower on Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday will be below normal in
the upper 60 to mid 70s.
Beyond rainfall, some of higher-res guidance is also fairly bullish
on wind gust potential on the western side of the low. Think the
strongest winds will remain close to the coast, but if the low track
further west areas east of Raleigh could see gusts as high as 30 mph
or so Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Beyond Wednesday, we`ll see weak ridging build in aloft which should
favor drier conditions and a warming trend into next weekend. Low-
end rain chances will return next weekend as well as a few mid-level
waves move along the coast and approach the TN valley to our west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...
A coastal low east of MYR today will drift slowly north and then
northwest toward coastal NC the next couple of days. Conditions are
expected to remain VFR through the current TAF period.  Confidence
is highest at INT and GSO as moisture will increase across the
coastal plain first, and forecast soundings suggest moisture below
3k ft will remain east of RWI and FAY until Monday night. However,
confidence is a little lower at RWI and FAY as models have trended
further west with the track of the low, which could allow moisture
and sub-VFR to arrive sooner. Rain should hold off until after 18Z
Monday. With the low pressure edging closer to the coast, there
should also be a gradual increase in winds over the coastal plain
and better chance of some wind gusts around 20kt Monday afternoon.
Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday and into
Wednesday as the surface low is forecast to move into the coastal
plain linger through Wednesday.  VFR should return buy late Thursday
or Friday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...BLS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion