Brazos, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

113
FXUS65 KABQ 210756
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
156 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will move across western
  and central New Mexico Monday. Some of this activity may produce
  strong outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall.
- A backdoor cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to
  northeast New Mexico Tuesday then to all of eastern New Mexico
  on Wednesday.
- A Pacific system may approach from the west toward the end of
  the work week, bringing improved chances for showers and storms
  Friday through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Water vapor imagery and surface obs early this morning show a deep
layer of drier air has spread across much of western and central NM.
The 00Z KABQ RAOB had a PWAT of 0.53" with a subsidence inversion
near 600mb while surface dewpoints have fallen into the 30s along
and west of the central mt chain. The drier and more stable airmass
will remain squarely over NM today with delightful weather for the
entire region. Fair weather cumulus are likely to build thru late
afternoon across central and western NM.
Changes will begin across western NM this evening with improving
moisture advection ahead of an approaching closed low off the SoCal
coastline. An 80kt speed max ahead of this wave will spread thicker
mid and high level cloud cover into western NM along with a few high-
based showers in the area from near Gallup to Farmington by sunrise
Monday. NBM 75th percentile QPF is 0.75" for eastern NM. There is greater
confidence that temps will cool several degrees for eastern NM,
especially Wednesday when highs may be up to 10F below normal.
Very low forecast confidence remains for late in the week. The west
coast upper low may eject eastward across the southwest CONUS Friday
thru next weekend with potential for increasing precip chances and
another drop in temps.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Isolated SHRA/TS will continue exiting far northeast NM early this
morning. A weak northeast wind shift will move south across eastern
NM with gusts up to 15KT possible. A couple patches of MVFR vsbys
may develop in the wake of the front between Clovis and Clayton.
The latest NBM probabilities are 

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion