Boynton Beach, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

057
FXUS62 KMFL 231218 AAA
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
818 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Plenty of moisture remains over South Florida this morning, with
GOES-based Total Precipitable Water (TPW) values over 2 inches.
Surprisingly, the last couple of HRRR model runs have decreased the
amount and coverage of precipitation across the area today, but with
the copious moisture and enough filtered morning sunshine leading to
surface instability, showers and thunderstorms should once again
develop along the seabreezes in the 11 AM to Noon time frame.
Adjusted PoPs slightly to concentrate the highest chances over the
interior/Everglades, and slightly lower over the east and west coast
metro areas.
With light low level wind flow and weak forcing aloft, the movement
of showers and thunderstorms will be largely outflow-dominant and
slightly favor a NE to SW motion towards the western portion of the
peninsula during the early and mid afternoon. Outflows will also be
able to spread back to the east and possibly affect east coast metro
areas again late in the afternoon.
Main threats will be the usual gusty winds with the stronger
thunderstorms, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and
locally higher rain amounts which could exceed 3 inches in
isolated spots. Favored areas of the highest rain amounts will
likely be over the interior, but one or two metro locations could
also get these higher values which could lead to localized
flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Unsettled weather will continue today and Wednesday as what`s left
of a lingering frontal boundary dissipates today. At the surface,
weak high pressure is over the northeast Gulf and western Atlantic.
Convection today and tomorrow will be sea-breeze driven during the
afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest PoPs focused
over interior and SW FL, although with the easterly flow fairly
weak, portions of the east coast metro will be in play early to mid
afternoon before the focus shifts into the interior late afternoon
into the early. With the weak steering flows in place, can`t count
out an isolated urban flood risk across the metro. Overall dry
conditions are expected overnight with just a few coastal showers or
isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures will be about a degree or so above normal with highs
today and tomorrow ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low
temps from the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Seasonal conditions are expected Thursday and Friday with convection
both days generally sea-breeze driven during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Things get more interesting this weekend as a trough
dives into the Gulf and a frontal boundary approaches the area and
likely stalls in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. At the same time,
a disturbance currently east of the Leeward Island has a medium
chance of development over the next 7 days. While the surface front
and upper level trough should steer any potential development away
from South FL, some peripheral impacts could be possible if there is
any development, so this system is worth watching as the week
progresses. Regardless, the frontal boundary stalling in the
vicinity of Lake Okeechobee will allow the atmosphere locally to
remain fairly saturated which is what forecast soundings show, with
PWAT values generally 2.1-2.3 inches. Expect the unsettled weather
to continue through the remainder of the extended forecast period.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the extended
period with highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps
will generally range from the lower 70s around the lake, to mid and
upper 70s over the rest of South FL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 816 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions through 16z-18z, then scattered SHRA/TSRA developing
along Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes and spreading over the interior
of the South FL peninsula through 00z. Best chances of lower
ceilings/vsby with TSRA and gusty wind at terminals will be from 18z-
22z, with lingering chances likely through 00z-02z. Light land
breeze through 16z, then seabreezes 8-12 knots from 16z-00z before
returning to land breeze after 00z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Gentle easterly winds expected over the area waters through mid
week, with brief west to southwesterly winds during the afternoon
over the near shore Gulf waters. Seas in the Atlantic generally 2-3
ft and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms today and
Wednesday may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Lingering NE swell will result in an elevated risk of rip currents
through mid week for the Palm Beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  90  78 /  50  30  60  20
West Kendall     90  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  20
Opa-Locka        91  78  91  78 /  60  30  60  20
Homestead        89  77  89  77 /  60  20  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  78  89  78 /  60  40  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  90  78  90  78 /  60  30  50  20
Pembroke Pines   92  78  92  78 /  60  30  60  20
West Palm Beach  90  77  89  77 /  60  30  50  20
Boca Raton       90  77  90  77 /  70  30  50  20
Naples           90  76  92  77 /  70  30  60  20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
UPDATE/AVIATION...Molleda

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion