Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

152
FXUS63 KDLH 140919
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
419 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog and low clouds will spread over portions of the
  Northland before sunrise, and clear out through the morning
  hours.
- Unseasonably warm and summer-like temperatures are expected
  through Wednesday. Highs in the 70s to low 80s.
- On-and-off chances for showers and storms for the next week,
  beginning tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
With continued east to northeast winds across western Lake
Superior, low clouds and fog have formed again tonight at the
head of the lake extending westward south of US-2 and across
northwest Wisconsin. Satellite trends show the low stratus now
expanding northward, with patchy fog mixed in. Low clouds and
fog will lift through the morning hours today, much like the
last few mornings.
An upper level ridge over the region will slowly shift eastward
today, with southerly low and mid level winds continuing to
advect warmer air and moisture northward. This will help push
temperatures today into the 70s and lower 80s, except for along
the immediate shorelines where temperatures warm into the 60s. A
strong shortwave will pivot northward through the Plains today
and into south central Canada. This will bring showers and a
few storms to the Northland tonight, mainly south of US-2. There
is weak elevated instability with bulk shear values of
25=30kts, so cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, but severe
storms are not expected. Shower/storm coverage expands Monday to
much of the area. Drier air under the ridge will keep portions
of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin dry.
By Tuesday, the upper level continues to be pushed eastward as
troughing pushes toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley,
keeping the Northland under persistent southwesterly flow
through much of the week, with above normal temperatures and
humidity the result. Impulses rotating through the trough will
allow for periods of rain and thunderstorms. There is some model
inconsistency with the timing of these impulses, which would
determine when the better rain chances occur. Latest model
guidance suggests a large upper low will break from the upper
trough and spin over the area the end of the week, bringing the
best rain chances to the Northland Thursday and Friday. The
upper low would also bring a return to normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Low stratus along the southern shore of western Lake Superior
and over the Twin Ports is spreading inland tonight, with east
winds at 5-8kts. Cigs at DLH have dropped to LIFR heights, and
expect the low stratus to continue to spread north and west,
impacting HIB and BRD before sunrise. With the stratus, fog is
also possible at DLH with vis below 1 mile.
Conditions improve through the morning Sunday, with improving
cigs and vis. Winds will increase from the east, with gusts up
to 18kts during the day at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Areas of low stratus and fog have developed tonight, and will
slowly lift through this morning. The worst visibilities will
be in the southwestern tip of the lake near the Twin Ports. A
dense fog advisory remains in effect through 10AM, for the South
Shore and the Twin Ports, but it may need to be expanded to
additional areas before sunrise.
Breezy northeast winds will cause building waves into the
southwest arm as well, and conditions may become hazardous for
mariners at times today before winds diminish this evening.
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for much of the North
Shore and the South Shore beginning at 10AM this morning. Gusts
may approach 25 knots, causing waves to build to near 5 feet.
The next chance for showers and storms begins early Monday
morning, through the day.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS
Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ141>146-150.
 Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144>146.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion