Big Piney, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

154
FXUS63 KSGF 021140
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (5 to 15 degrees
  above normal) and mainly dry weather expected through the end
  of the week.
- While some widely isolated showers will be possible this
  afternoon (10-15% chance across southern Missouri), the next
  main potential for rainfall is not expected until early to the
  middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Unseasonably weak atmospheric flow is apparent across much of
the CONUS as evidenced by a relatively lackluster water vapor
satellite imagery presentation. The most apparent features are a
small and weak upper-level trough traversing west to east
across IA/MO, and a subtle mid-level boundary parallel to the
Lower Mississippi River Valley with a weak stream of moisture
west of it across our area. The latter feature is known as a
backdoor (or westward moving) frontal boundary. Moisture is
noted to be higher ahead of this boundary, slowly sneaking into
our area from the east as evidenced by cloud formation across
the eastern Ozarks. The slight increase in moisture is allowing
for a bit more mild lows tonight in the lower 60s with sparse
areas of light ground fog, especially in low-lying areas.
Despite the subtle features around the area, due to the larger
scale weak flow and ridging pattern in place, much of the area
is expected to be mostly sunny today with highs in the middle to
upper 80s again.
10-15% chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm this afternoon:
The backdoor front along with the slight increase in moisture
ahead of it will be the focus for a very low chance (10-15%) for
a stray shower or thunderstorm across southern MO. The gradual
moistening of our atmospheric profile as shown by our balloon
data the past few days will allow for 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
today, according to short-term ensemble guidance. While
moistening has been occurring, there`s still an appreciable
amount of dry air in the mid and upper levels. As a result,
model soundings show these MLCAPE profiles to be rather skinny
and short, which would result in short, stout, and weak showers
and thunderstorms if any form.
The question on if storms form will be a matter of balance
between convergence/lift along the backdoor front and subsidence
within the backside of the weak upper-level trough which is
forecast to overlap the greatest instability corridor at peak
heating. For this reason, chances are low (10-15%) for a stray
shower or thunderstorm to pop-up across southern MO this
afternoon, generally between 3-7 PM. If any do form, no hazards
are expected except for maybe a few lightning strikes.
The chance of rain out there can also be explained in this way:
There`s 50-70% confidence in a stray shower developing somewhere
across southern Missouri (SREF 24-hour precip guidance), but
only a few square miles (

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion