Bent, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

509
FXUS64 KEPZ 050358
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
958 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 944 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Temperatures remain near or a few degrees above normal through
   the week.
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of
   the week, favoring northern areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 944 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
As the upper trough exits to the east tonight, skies clear out for
Sunday. SW flow aloft will keep dry air in place for the short-term
with some lingering moisture and mid clouds over eastern areas.
With a surface low sitting over NE NM and modest isobar packing,
winds stay on the breezy side at generally 10-15 mph for the
afternoon, a bit stronger over Sierra County.
On Monday, a weak backdoor front moves into the region, bringing
additional moisture into midweek. The front makes a slow progression
westward through midweek, increasing PWs to well above normal
Tue/Wed (1-1.1"); average PWs are around 0.6". Rain chances will
be favored in northern areas mainly on Tue where dynamics are
better closer to the frontal boundary. A few thunderstorms may
develop as well with some instability present. Modestly breezy
E-SE winds (10-15 mph) are forecast for Tuesday behind the front.
The forecast trends drier later in the week as the global ensembles
indicate the elongated upper ridge centralizing over northern Mexico
from the east. This will cap most if not all convection even with
some leftover moisture trapped underneath the high. Dry
conditions are expected after Wed. Winds will be light to modestly
breezy each day through the forecast, mainly from the east.
Temperatures won`t change much behind the front, up to 5 degrees
cooler on Tuesday. Highs will remain near or a few degrees above
normal through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 944 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Gustiness
from SW redevelops during the afternoon with gusts near 20kts.
Lighter winds expected overnight and late in the period AOB 10kts.
Mainly SKC expected with FEW-SCT100 hanging around KELP tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Elevated fire danger tomorrow afternoon in the lowlands of Sierra
county as min RH values will range from 15-18% combined with breezy
conditions with 20 foot winds of 10-15 mph in that vicinity. Low
fire danger elsewhere on Sunday as min RHs 18-24% in the lowlands
and 35-45% in the mountains with southwest 20 ft winds of 5-10 mph.
Wind speeds through Saturday will be generally 5-10 mph each
afternoon and min RHs stay above critical thresholds each afternoon
through the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  59  87  60 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               85  58  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  60  87  62 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               62  44  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    83  54  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              77  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   87  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                83  55  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       86  66  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                88  61  90  62 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             91  67  93  68 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               80  61  82  62 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                   89  64  92  67 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             85  61  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           85  63  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            84  58  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    86  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 88  59  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                83  58  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  75  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                75  48  77  50 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 72  48  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  77  44  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                82  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                83  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             77  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   80  50  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    83  51  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               78  48  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  79  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  55  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           85  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               78  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion