Bennettsville, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

503
FXUS62 KILM 281027
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
627 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drift and become stationary just offshore
today with rain chances mainly lingering along the coast.
Tropical Depression Nine in the Bahamas should become tropical
storm Imelda then a Hurricane during this week as it moves
northward out of the Bahamas, spreading significant rainfall
across the Carolinas Monday thru Tuesday along with dangerous
marine weather and ocean conditions. Drier and cooler weather
should develop later Wednesday through Friday as Canadian high
pressure builds in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another day of unsettled weather as the front stalled near
the coast has a pulse of low pressure move up and along it
within our moist airmass. In general, rainfall totals will be
higher near the coast due to the convergence along this frontal
boundary. Inland could see ~0.25" with isolated amounts
~0.5-0.75", while the coastal areas will see ~0.5-0.75" with
isolated amounts ~1-1.5" possible. Rain may become a bit less
widespread into tonight as some drier air/subsidence builds in
briefly with the passing of the low, but scattered
showers/storms will remain possible with increasing cloud cover
and an increasing overnight NE breeze. This will call into
question fog formation tonight, but low level moisture from
rainfall could lead to patchy spots of fog forming despite the
unfavorable conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Stationary front just offshore and parallel to the Carolina
Coast at the start will waver toward the coast this period.
Deep moisture will get pulled onshore and inland Mon from the
combination of the closed upper low across the SE States and
northward moving Imelda (should be named by this time) with
NHC forecasted to be offshore between Daytona Beach and
Jacksonville Tue morning and progged by NHC in its commencement
of a right hand (eastward) turn. Our heaviest rainfall to occur
Mon thru Tue timeline with generally categorical POPs at the
coast dropping off to likely far inland. Expect stratiform
moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunder and elevated
thunder elements. For Tue night, Imelda fcst to be moving in an
eastwardly direction, away from the U.S. mainland. While the
upper closed low opens up into a east-west upper trof axis
across the FA. Drier air will get pulled across the area from
the north with pcpn activity becoming scattered in coverage and
Pops dropping to low chance inland and modest at best at the
coast. Not much of a diurnal range in temps Mon thru Tue with
basically widespread low to upper 70s thru this period. However
with drier air infiltrating as well as cooler air, Tue night
lows should drop into widespread 60s. Overall, there has been a
lowering of the QPF across the area thru Wed morning given
Imelda`s diminished northward movement by the end of this
period. At this point we`re looking at rainfall forecasts
running 2 to 4 inches across the coastal counties, lowering to 1
to 2 inches across the inland counties. Of course, we`ll
observe locally higher amounts, especially at the coast. Bear in
mind, any deviation with Imelda`s Track/Intensity fcst will
result in fcsts needing amendments downstream. The highlight of
NHC`s Imelda fcsts during the past 24 hrs is that it continues
to illustrate no direct landfall occurrence across the SE
States.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wed thru Wed night, Imelda`s NHC fcst track has her pushing
eastward, even further away from the U.S. mainland. Also during
this timeline, the upper trof axis will drop south of the FA.
Leftover slight chance POPs at the coast Wed. Sfc high pressure
progged to ridge across the Carolinas from the NE States thru
Sat. Looking at an influx of drier and cooler air across the FA
with Fall-like conditions...no POPs, Daytime highs in the 70s
and night-time lows in the 50s to around 60 at the coast. These
progged temps are at or slight below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers could move onshore this morning impacting coastal
terminals with reduced VSBYs/CIGs. Otherwise, restrictions
remain inland with fog and stratus looming near terminals. Have
added TEMPOs through the morning for possible IFR but brief LIFR
could be possible before the sun rises. MVFR/IFR CIGs with
heavy rain impacting VSBYs will be hard to rule out through the
day at all terminals. CIGs could drop again tonight with
increasingly widespread rain chances towards the end of the
period.
Extended Outlook...Restrictions will continue as what could
become Imelda approaches the area. Widespread MVFR/IFR and
increasingly gusty winds will begin as early as Monday, with
wind gusts along the coast possibly approaching tropical storm
force. Conditions should begin to improve Wednesday but breezy
NE winds gusting near 25-30 knots could continue through the end
of the period due to strong Canadian high pressure building in.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Deteriorating marine conditions through the
period as the PG increases ahead of TS Nine. NE winds will
increase to ~15 kts by the afternoon and then ~20 kts overnight
where Small Craft criteria could start being met via gusts. Seas
will also respond increasing to 3-5 ft overnight with long
period swells ~15-16 seconds starting to impact the waters.
Monday through Thursday...As noted earlier, this fcst is
based on the latest NHC Imelda fcst track/intensity. Mon thru
Mon night, Imelda progged to reach its most northern latitude
before slowing down and turning more easterly as Major Hurricane
Humberto flirts with 70West longitude as it turns and races at
a more northerly direction. Although Imelda`s wind field will
increase in areal coverage as it pushes northward, its main
circulation to remain over the offshore waters as it makes its
right hand turn and eventual easterly trajectory. Winds will
generally hold in a NE-ENE direction thruout this 4 day period
with Imelda circulation influencing thru Wed followed by strong
synoptic high pressure ridging in from the NE States Wed thru
Thu. Outside of any tropical watches/warnings, expect SCA and
likely Gale Warnings late Mon thru Thu timeline. Seas will be
influenced by Imelda initially, with easterly 9 second period
waves. Mixing in will be Humberto initially at 16+ second period
SE swells starting late tonight or Mon and continuing thru Thu
with its period dropping to 11+ seconds. Will likely observe
double digit significant seas across the local waters as a mix
of Imelda and Humberto waves occur followed by the shorter
period high pressure generated wind waves at the end of this
period.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/LEW

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion