Ben Franklin, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

935
FXUS64 KFWD 172335
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through this weekend with
  afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated (15-20% chance) showers and storms are expected again tomorrow
  afternoon.
- There will be a slight chance of storms on a daily basis
  beginning Thursday night and continuing through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/
/Through Friday/
Another warm day is taking shape across the region with highs in
the low to mid 90s. We`re still watching the potential for
isolated to scattered showers and storms later this afternoon. If
storms develop, the main hazards will be lightning and brief
gusty winds. Similar to the last few days, this activity should
be short-lived and a quiet night should follow with mostly clear
conditions. Tonight`s lows will range from the upper 60s to mid
70s.
The mid/upper level trough that is keeping the central/northern
plains fairly active will continue to travel eastward tomorrow
and Friday. For us, another round of isolated to scattered
convection is expected tomorrow afternoon. At the same time, a
cold front is forecast to travel east/southeast from the TX/OK
Panhandle. Some of the latest high-res guidance show the front
approaching our Red River counties Thursday night into Friday
morning which will result in slightly higher coverage of rain and
storms. Given the uncertainty of the progression of the front,
PoPs are capped at 40-50% along the Red River and 20-30% for the
rest of North Texas. It is possible that Central Texas will remain
dry with only a low chance for showers/storms Friday afternoon.
As for temperatures, Thursday will be very similar to today`s with
highs in the low to mid 90s but Friday`s highs may be a few
degrees cooler due to higher coverage of clouds and rain chances.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 127 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/
/Weekend through next Wednesday/
Not much has changed in the long-term forecast as we continue to
highlight the low rain chances over the weekend and better
potential for rain and storms early next week. Saturday will be
mostly dry with highs in the low to mid 90s. A few showers/storms
may develop in the far eastern zones and along the Red River, but
most locations will remain dry. By Sunday, another upper level
disturbance will be moving across the central U.S. bringing
scattered rain/storms across North TX.
The pattern is forecast to become a little more active early next
week as a stronger trough moves eastward into the northern and
central plains. Most of the extended guidance develops a cutoff
low near its base which may travel closer to our region.
Additionally, we could see a cold front travel south and bring
not only storm chances but also slightly cooler temperatures early
next week. Unfortunately, is looking like this won`t be a "true
fall front" but at least we could see more seasonal temperatures
at least for a day or two before we warm up again.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
A couple showers still linger across south-central and
northwestern Tarrant County as of 6:30PM this evening. The
lightning potential will remain near-zero for the rest of today.
Expect all of the ongoing shower activity to diminish by 01Z.
Winds at all D10 terminals are currently out of the south-
southeast behind an outflow boundary and will likely remain out of
the south-southeast for the next few hours before veering more
southwesterly tonight.
More isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across North and Central Texas tomorrow afternoon after
19Z. Confidence in terminal impacts is too low at the moment for a
precip mention in the current TAF, but VCSH or VCTS may be
included in the TAF in a future forecast update.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  93  71  90  72 /   5  20  30  30   5
Waco                71  92  71  91  70 /   5  20  10  20   0
Paris               69  92  68  87  67 /  10  20  40  40  20
Denton              69  93  69  90  68 /   5  20  40  30  10
McKinney            71  93  69  89  69 /   5  20  30  40  10
Dallas              75  95  73  92  73 /   5  20  30  30   5
Terrell             70  93  69  89  68 /  10  20  20  40   5
Corsicana           72  93  71  91  70 /  10  20  10  30   5
Temple              69  92  69  91  68 /   5  20   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       68  93  68  92  68 /   0  20  20  30   5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion