Belvedere, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

560
FXUS62 KCAE 202344
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
744 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers and thunderstorms diminish quickly this
evening. High pressure builds into the region with above
average temperatures expected again on Sunday. Dry conditions
continue to start off the work week, then rain chances will be
on the increase from mid- week onward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- Lingering convection diminishes quickly this evening.
Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved out of
the Midlands with scattered convection ongoing this evening in
the CSRA. Now that the sun it setting, any lingering convection
should dissipate quickly as it slowly drifts off to the south
and southeast. Skies should become mostly clear tonight,
promoting another night of radiational cooling and patchy fog
around daybreak. Fog should be concentrated along bodies of
waters and locations that saw heavy rainfall today. Temperatures
at daybreak should range from the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry conditions continue into early this week.
Weak upper level troughing is forecast to continue across the
southeastern CONUS, with a trough axis at 250 hPa centered
across AL/MS border Sunday, slowly lifting northeastward through
Monday. Surface ridge axis is forecast to extend southwestward
into the Carolinas from the Mid-Atlantic, intensifying through
the day Sunday as a weak coastal low develops. The northeasterly
flow should result in drier air advecting into the region
through the day, keeping chances of rain lower than they are
today or yesterday, Highs will likely be in the upper 80s to
around 90. Monday looks fairly quiet as well. The trough axis
shifting near or overhead should help to weaken the surface
ridging that is in place, which may aid in allowing onshore,
southeasterly flow to begin again. While this may result in PWs
slowly rising again, only widely isolated showers are possible
in this regime. This would mainly be in the coastal plain where
the sea breeze makes it. Highs Monday look like they`ll be in
the upper 80s again. Lows both nights should be in the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Continued dry on Tuesday.
- Rain chances return for mid to late week.
- Above normal temperatures through Thursday, then turning
  cooler.
THe upper level pattern is forecast to amplify as we get into
the middle to late part of this upcoming week. This owes to a
shortwave digging into the central portion of the CONUS.
GUidance is split on how this actually evolves but the general
trend is towards a deeper trough that ends up moving slowly
eastwards Thursday/Friday/Saturday of the upcoming week. Before
this, heights will slowly rise in response to the amplifying of
the pattern, with well above normal temps expected again on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Even with moisture values increasing back
above normal, lows will be a bit higher in addition to
persistent southwesterly flow. Look for highs on Tues/Wed in the
90F-94F range. Moisture is forecast to increase in earnest by
Thur/Fri as the trough slowly approaches our forecast area. Some
guidance forecasts this to gradually cut off through the week,
and this seems fairly reasonable given another strong trough
forecast to end up along the west coast of the CONUS by this
time period. So the end result should end up being a few days of
actual, solid rain chances to close the forecast period out.
Each member of the LREF has high rain chances Thur/Fri of this
week, adding to forecaster confidence. Temps are forecast to
fall back to near or below normal values as a result of the
increasing clouds and rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very similar weather pattern to the past few days expected.
Afternoon convection is winding down this evening and do not
expect any additional restrictions related to showers or storms.
Cloud cover is expected to diminish through the night allowing
for radiational cooling with generally light to calm winds. With
some rain at the terminals and somewhat favorable conditions for
fog kept the previous forecast inclusion of tempo groups for
MVFR/IFR vsbys 09z-12z time frame. Winds should pick up from the
northeast at 5 to 10 knots after 15z with some diurnally
induced cumulus clouds and increasing high clouds through the
day.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
early next week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion