Belgium, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

680
FXUS63 KMKX 050910
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
410 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One more day of summer-like temps in the lower 80s today, but
  will be accompanied by gusty southerly winds up to 20-30 mph.
- Dry conditions through this evening, but scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (40-80%) return late tonight into Monday
  with slow moving a cold front passage.
- Gusty winds along the Lake Michigan will bring small craft
  conditions today through early Monday morning.
- Cooler, more seasonal and closer to normal temps return for
  midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Today through Monday:
Will be another day of summer-like temps across southern WI
today with high temps a few degrees cooler but still expected to
top of in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Given the tighter
pressure gradient building ahead of the deepening low lifting
from the east side of the Dakotas into Ontario today, expect
gusty conditions through the day across southern WI. Will see
gusts of 20-30 mph through the afternoon and evening before
gradually easing overnight into Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front.
Additionally will see shower chances increase late tonight
through the day Monday ahead and along a slow moving cold front.
While a welcoming change in the pattern, rainfall amounts are
trending on the lower side, generally below half an inch across
much of the area. Main reason for the lack luster rainfall will
be because much of the upper-level support remains to the north
of the area closer to the center of the mid-level trough and
associated upper-level dynamics. Also timing will play a role as
the 00z-06z CAMs prog a broken line of shower and storms to
decay/weaken as it moves into southern WI overnight into early
Monday morning. Models then suggest either lingering light
showers or even a lull in activity mid-Monday morning/early
afternoon as the cold front slides through the area. Then could
see the line of shower/storms reinvigorate later Monday
afternoon/early evening across southeastern WI where daytime
heating helps build a bit of instability (MUCAPE between 400-750
J/kg) back into the southeastern part of WI. So while not
expecting much in the way of widespread heavy rain or any
stronger storms, cannot rule out a localized pocket of moderate
to heavy rainfall bringing slight higher rainfall amounts above
half an inch. Otherwise, post cold front will bring northerly
winds and a drier, cooler airmass to southern WI through Monday
night.
Wagner
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Monday night through Saturday:
Surface high pressure builds into the central Great Plains
Monday night, helping to slowly push the cold front out of our
region, with shower chances decreasing in a NW to SE manner into
early Tuesday morning. Light north to northwest winds linger
into Tuesday, with decreasing cloud cover and highs in the mid
60s (around or just a touch above seasonal norms). High pressure
deepens over southern Ontario and the Great Lakes region
through Wednesday, allowing dry weather to continue under sunny
skies. A slight warming trend ensues for the latter half of the
week as the aforementioned high pressure tracks eastward across
the northeastern CONUS states and into the Atlantic Ocean. Light
east winds on Wednesday veer south on Thursday and boost
temperatures towards the 70 degree mark.
Though dry weather is likely through much of the latter half of
the week, a weak cold front similar to what we are dealing with
early in the week may cross the region, with some accompanying
500mb perturbations. As such, there will be periods of 10-25%
rain chances.
Sheppard
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across southern WI through the day,
but expect gusty southerly winds with gusts of 20-25 knots
later this morning through the afternoon. Winds will gradually
ease through the evening ahead of an approaching cold front,
but will be a potential for LLWS to develop overnight as the
tail-end of the low-level jet works through the area. Will see
a broken line of showers and few storms roll into southern WI
early Monday morning, but will be on a downward trend as it
pushes into the area. Likely to see a lull in the activity mid
morning and early afternoon before the line of showers and
storms redevelop across southeastern WI Monday
afternoon/evening. Any shower and thunderstorm activity that may
impact a southern WI terminal could be accompanied by lower
ceiling heights and lower visibility to around MVFR/IFR levels.
Wagner
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Increasing southerly winds build across Lake Michigan today as
a deepening low pressure tracks from eastern ND/SD this morning
up into Ontario through the afternoon/evening. Strongest winds
will be across the northern third of the open waters with a
window for gale force gusts this evening and overnight. Thus
have upgraded to a Gale Warning. Otherwise, the southern two-
thirds of the lake will see southerly gusts of 25-30 knots today
into tonight and small craft conditions are expected in
southeastern WI nearshore waters today into early Monday
morning. Then winds are expected to shift to the southwest and
gradually weaken into Monday morning ahead of an approaching
cold front. A northerly wind shift is expected through the day
Monday behind the cold front and is progged to push south of
Lake Michigan by Monday night. High pressure looks to quickly
build in behind the cold front for Tuesday into midweek.
Wagner
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...5 PM Sunday to 2
     AM Monday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 7 AM Monday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...11 AM Sunday to
     1 AM Monday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion