Bayview, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

026
FXUS63 KMKX 240229 AAA
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
929 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog will be possible overnight into early Wednesday
  morning, mainly for the Madison area and points westward.
- A small chance (20 percent at best) for lake effect and other
  showers overnight into Thursday morning along the lakeshore,
  with conditions drying out by the end of the week.
- Beach Hazards Statement for Milwaukee County beaches south to
  Kenosha County from middle afternoon Wednesday into early
  Thursday morning. This may need to start sooner in this area
  if winds increase and waves build sooner.
- Highs rise to around 80 degrees for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 929 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An area of middle to high clouds will continue to linger across
southern portions of the area overnight into early Wednesday
morning. The low clouds near the lake have dissipated for now.
There should be more low clouds that develop overnight into
Wednesday morning across the area, with light northeast winds
bringing some lake effect clouds and perhaps a few showers or
sprinkles off of Lake Michigan. The delta T values are
borderline at best for lake effect showers, with a few showers
possible within cyclonic flow aloft, so any of this activity
should be widely scattered at best. This potential may linger
into Wednesday night or Thursday morning near the lake.
There should also be some fog development in south central
Wisconsin overnight into early Wednesday morning, with 1 to 5
mile visibility possible at times. Not sure how widespread the
fog may get, as the middle to high clouds may limit its
development. Lows in the middle to upper 50s are anticipated
overnight, with lower 60s in far southeast Wisconsin near the
lake. Highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees are
anticipated on Wednesday.
The Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for later
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning for the Lake
Michigan beaches from Milwaukee County south to Kenosha County.
Waves of 3 to 5 feet on gusty north winds will bring high swim
risk conditions to this area, with moderate swim risk conditions
for Ozaukee County beaches. It is possible that waves may build
sooner than middle afternoon on Wednesday, if winds increase
sooner. So, The Beach Hazards Statement may need to start
earlier for this area.
Wood
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 244 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Tonight through Thursday night:
Wisconsin will be in a regime of post-frontal cyclonic flow with
moisture streaming in off of Lake Michigan. While clouds have
broken up this afternoon, save for southeast WI where a low
stratus deck lingers, clouds will increase tonight. Areas of fog
are expected around Madison and points westward.
Given the cyclonic flow, clouds are expected to linger into
tomorrow, with some chances for scattered sprinkles and light
rain through the day. A bit more substantial chance for lake
effect rain then looks possible over southeast Wisconsin on
Thursday as lake-induced CAPE increases due to a pocket of
colder air aloft.
Persistent northeast flow will lead to high waves along the Lake
Michigan shoreline. Moderate Swim Risk conditions are expected
tonight into tomorrow morning, with a High Swim Risk expected
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Swimming is not
advised during this time and it is recommended to stay away from
piers and breakwalls, where rolling currents are more likely.
CMiller
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 308 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Friday through Tuesday:
Dry weather is expected Friday through the weekend as surface
high pressure builds into the region amid ridging aloft. Fair
weather and light to moderate winds are expected, amid highs
near 80 through Monday.
CMiller
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 929 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An area of middle to high clouds will continue to linger across
portions of the area overnight into early Wednesday morning.
The low clouds near the lake have dissipated for now. There
should be more low clouds, with ceilings as low as 500 to 1200
feet AGL, that develop overnight into Wednesday morning across
the area. These ceilings should rise above 2000 feet AGL in the
afternoon and above 3500 feet AGL by Wednesday evening.
Light northeast winds should also bring some lake effect clouds
and perhaps a few showers or sprinkles off of Lake Michigan
overnight into Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Any
shower activity should be widely scattered at best. These winds
should become more north northeast later Wednesday into
Wednesday night. May see some gusts to 15 to 18 knots at times
in the afternoon for terminals near Lake Michigan.
There should also be some fog development in south central
Wisconsin overnight into early Wednesday morning, with 1 to 5
mile visibility possible at times. Not sure how widespread the
fog may get, as the middle to high clouds may limit its
development.
Wood
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 929 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Gusty north to northeast winds will continue overnight into
Thursday, as low pressure around 29.7 inches slowly moves
northeast over the Ohio River Valley. Winds then weaken Thursday
night, as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves over the
region. Some lake effect showers may occur with the northeast
winds. Conditions do not look supportive for waterspouts at this
time. South to southwest winds should then occur Friday into
Saturday, as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves into the
region.
For the nearshore waters, waves will approach Small Craft
Advisory levels overnight into Wednesday morning south of North
Point Lighthouse, as they build into the 2 to 3 foot range. It
is possible that waves may reach 3 to 5 feet a little earlier
than middle afternoon on Wednesday, if the north to northeast
winds increase sooner than anticipated. Thus, the Small Craft
Advisory may need to be started earlier for this area.
A Small Craft Advisory is then in effect by later Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday morning for the same area, for
building waves of 3 to 5 feet on north winds of 15 to 20 knots.
CMiller/Wood
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...4 PM
     Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM
     Thursday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion