Baxter, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

651
FXUS61 KPBZ 181812
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
212 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into
the weekend. Rain chances return to the forecast next week,
though the chance for widespread wetting rain remains low.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above-normal temperatures continue
- Valley fog is possible tonight
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will continue to be the main weather feature
across the area. Besides the instance of a passing high cloud,
skies are expected to be clear through tonight. This will mean
light winds as well as light winds off the surface. Temperatures
will continue to be above normal for the year. The current
forecast across the area has mid 80s for highs this afternoon
and there is a 60% prob to exceed 85 degrees this afternoon.
Heading into the overnight, the skies will remain mainly clear.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be right around
average if not a degree of two above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues to end the work week
- A weak front brings slightly cooler temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------------
The set up on Friday will feature high pressure still in control
within developing northwest flow across the area. Friday night
will feature normal or just above normal temperatures again with
the potential of fog development, mainly in the river valleys.
Ensembles continue to show the high center positioned to the
north into the Great Lakes shifting southeast into the England
area. As this happens, a weak shortwave will drop into the Upper
OH Valley. This will bring some moisture to the region along
with a weak chance of precip over the northern WV counties. The
NBM is advertising a 20% to 40% probability of 0.01 or more with
this weak trough on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Still mostly dry and warmer than normal through the weekend
- Slight uptick in rain chances next week
- Temperatures remain above normal Monday through Wednesday,
  albeit with a slight downward trend
------------------------------------------------------------------
The mentioned trough further infiltrates the region by Saturday
night into Sunday as additional moisture arrives into the
region. With a weak boundary in place, the winds begin to shift
to a more southern flow. This will ensure a better chance of
measurable precipitation. Thus, the NBM comes up with 40% to 60%
probs of 0.01 or more for Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday
morning will also stand the chance for some valley fog
developing, especially in river valleys.
Ensembles/cluster analysis continue to show a slower trend with
the progress of the next upstream trough, with the axis
progressing from the Upper Mississippi Valley to just the
Western/Central Great Lakes by Tuesday. Some solutions even
suggest the development of a cutoff upper low somewhere over the
eastern Plains. This trend, in turn, results in just a slow
increase to minimal PoPs, with slight chance values northwest of
Pittsburgh Sunday night/Monday, before eventually overspreading
the area Tuesday/Wednesday. QPF expectations are not high. The
NBM shows a 40-60 percent chance of 0.10" or more during the
72-hour period ending at 12Z Thursday. With increasing rainfall
deficits, we will need healthier precipitation totals to put a
better dent in the developing drought.
Overall, above-normal temperatures continue to be the
expectation through the middle of next week. Still, with the
slowly falling heights and increasing cloud cover potential, a
modest downward trend is the most likely scenario. The 25th-75th
percentile spreads do increase through this period, indicating
increasing uncertainty in the ultimate values. This is
reasonable given the range of potential solutions regarding the
speed/positioning of the upstream trough.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR continues to be favored for the most part over the next 24
hours, with few to no clouds and light northwest wind into the
overnight hours. Warmer overnight lows should lead to a bit less
valley fog than was seen this morning.
A weak frontal boundary settles into western PA by 12Z Friday.
While no notable precipitation is expected with the boundary,
enough low- level moisture may accompany it to produce a
stratocumulus layer at FKL/DUJ. Confidence in MVFR ceilings is
only moderate at this time, and have introduced a scattered
layer at 2000 feet at both sites for now. The boundary will also
veer light wind slightly to the north.
.OUTLOOK....
VFR is favored through Saturday with continued high pressure.
The approach of an upper-level trough may foster low-
probability rain/sprinkles Sunday and Monday, favoring
locations northwest of Pittsburgh, but VFR is likely to persist.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...TC/Shallenberger
AVIATION...CL

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion