Bar Harbor, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

731
FXUS61 KCAR 121846 CCA
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
246 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region through Saturday. A
cold front will approach Saturday night and cross the region on
Sunday. High pressure builds back in through the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will drift east later tonight. This will result in
mainly clear skies and light winds. The combination of the
light winds and mainly clear skies will allow temperatures to
fall rather quickly early this evening. Satellite shows some
patchy high level clouds moving east through Quebec province
which will move into the region this evening. This appears to
be quite patchy and thin, so despite this we should still see
good radiational cooling conditions this evening. There is
thicker cloud north of the Great Lakes region which will not
arrive until late tonight. Decided to issue a frost advisory
for northern Somerset and Northwest Aroostook where patchy to
areas of frost are likely, with lows falling into the mid 30s in
the normally colder areas. High pressure moves east on Saturday
with a return flow of somewhat milder air expected. A weak
upper disturbance will cross the region during Saturday with
partly sunny skies expected. Highs will range from the upper
60s to around 70 degrees. A Beach Hazard Statement has also been
issued for Saturday for the downeast coast in coordination with
the coast guard. Clouds are on the increase Saturday night in
advance of an upper trough and cold front from Quebec. Expect a
chance of showers across the north and a slight chance of
showers elsewhere late. Lows will not be as cold Saturday night
and mainly in the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday: The upper level trof will continue to move across the
state. The surface trof will also follow the upper level trof.
The question will be how much rain will fall from the cold
front. Also, if any thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
frontal passage. As of this update, the GFS is the most
aggressive with the rain amounts, especially with the 06Z run
showing a drastic increase. If the dry air ahead of the front is
able decrease in the mid levels, then more rain should be
expected. Nevertheless, the higher rain amounts should be
concentrated along the eastern border.
Sunday night and Monday: The surface high pressure moves in,
pushing out the rest of the rain before midnight. Early cloudy
skies should keep low temps in the 40s for the region. By
Monday, expect mostly sunny skies, light NW winds, and temps in
the low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The high pressure is expected to staying the area through the
beginning of the week. The models are very inconsistent with the
track and timing of the next trof. Decided to stay with the NBM
with slight chance of rain, but the timing is going to be
difficult to determine this far out. Temps show a warming trend
throughout the week until the cold front moves through the
state.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR through Saturday night. The only exception
will be the possibility of patchy fog late tonight and lower
conditions in the vicinity of KPQI and KHUL. Light and variable
wind tonight becoming S 5 to 10 kt Saturday through Saturday
night.
SHORT TERM: Sunday...MVFR in rain showers. NNW winds 5-10 kts.
Sun night-Wed...VFR. Light and variable winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
Saturday night.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
this time period.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ001-003.
     Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...TWD/LaFlash
Marine...TWD/LaFlash

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion