Bandon, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

283
FXUS66 KMFR 241145
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
445 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period, with continued offshore low-level flow and a
strengthening subsidence inversion. The one exception is that areas
of fog may move onshore early this morning, including at North Bend,
and again tonight. Gusty north winds are expected at the coast
this afternoon and evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025/
DISCUSSION...A strong ridge of high pressure will remain over
the region through late this week with a cutoff low to the south
over southern/central California and a low to the east in the
central/southern Plains. The ridge will be strongest today, then
weaken some Thursday as a trough moves over the ridge to the
north. Hot temperatures, similar to yesterday, are expected
across inland areas today. These temperatures will be around 15
degrees above normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s for
valleys west of the Cascades and in the mid to upper 80s east of
the Cascades. Additionally, a very dry air mass remains in place
today. Low humidities are occuring this morning over the mountains
this morning along with easterly breezes. This afternoon expect
low humidities across all areas inland of the coast today. This
will bring some elevated fire weather conditions to the area. For
details see the fire weather discussion below.
On Thursday, a dry front will bring slightly cool (less hot)
temperatures and breezy to gusty winds to the area. The strongest
winds are expected in the Shasta valley and east of the Cascades
(with gusts of around 20 to 25 mph). The cutoff low to the south
will drift slightly northward on Thursday but models continue to
indicate dry weather with moisture and any thunderstorms staying
south/southeast of the area.
High pressure remains in place with dry and warm weather is
likely Friday and Saturday. Sunday will likely start out dry but
an approaching front will allow for chances for rain along and
near the coast late in the day Sunday. Additionally, temperatures
will trend less hot across the area on Sunday, with highs closer
to seasonal norms but still around 3 to 6 degrees above normal.
Models continue to indicate a pattern change towards wetter,
cooler, and potentially windier conditions Sunday night into next
week. For details on the long term forecast, please see the
previous long term discussion below.
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, September 24,
2025...Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected this morning.
Winds will increase this afternoon, then moreso on Thursday. This
will result in steep to very steep seas. Seas will be a mix of
short period wind seas and northwest swell today, then becoming
dominated by short period wind seas on Thursday. Strongest winds
and steepest seas will be across the outer waters today then
across the waters south of Cape Blanco on Thursday. Gusty winds
and steep to very steep seas may linger into Friday. Then, winds
trend lower on Saturday into Saturday night.
FIRE WEATHER...Poor to moderate recoveries are occurring this
morning over area upper slopes and ridges along with easterly
breezes, especially from the Cascades west. These winds have
trended lower today compared to yesterday though. This afternoon
expect low humidities across most inland areas.
An upper trough will swing through the area Thursday morning with
a dry cold front moving through the area. In the wake of the
front, the pressure gradient will tighten up with gusty breezes
setting up along and east of the Cascades Thursday afternoon and
lasting into early Thursday evening. At the same time, relative
humidity will be low, but at this time the combination of the two
just aren`t quite there for critical conditions to be met. So for
now we`ll headline this and have the evening shift take another
look at this when new data comes in later this evening.
In the wake of the dry front there`s good agreement a thermal
trough will set up along the south Oregon coast and models are
showing rather robust northeast winds at 925 mb (15-20 kts) along
the southwest Oregon coast, and 15-20 kt at 850 mb in portions of
Fire zone 280, along with moderate to poor overnight recoveries.
Upper ridging will build in again Friday, but the ridge is not as
strong as what we are currently experiencing, therefore while
afternoon temperatures will be above normal, they won`t be as hot
when compared to today and Wednesday. as Upper ridging will weaken
and shift to the east in response to a large and rather strong
upper low sets up over the Alaska Panhandle, this will bring
cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidities to the area.
The above mentioned upper low could be a play maker for the
weather for early next week. The operational model, ensembles and
clusters all point to a change in the pattern towards cooler and
wetter and some of the guidance is suggesting a good shot of
precipitation for most areas along and west of the Cascades.
However, this needs to be taken with a grain of salt given it`s
still a ways out there and typically when there is a potential
significant change in the pattern often times models and ensembles
have some difficulty in resolving some of the details with
respect to timing and locations of high and lows. Stay tuned.
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 PM PDT Tue Sep 23
2025/
After this week of dry and above normal temperatures, our
attention will turn towards a potentially strong upper level low
which could bring widespread rainfall to the forecast area. There
is a lot of uncertainty with regards to rainfall amounts and areal
coverage. However, confidence is high for more seasonable
temperatures. Cluster analysis indicates high confidence for a
trough impacting the region starting Sunday, but the finer details
are what is currently in question like rainfall and potential
breezy/gusty areas. Ensemble members are still showing a split of
dry solutions and very wet solutions and a mix in between these
two. This doesn`t boost confidence for rainfall, and we will
likely need a few more days before some semblance of confidence
arises. Highest confidence is for temperatures to be more
seasonable early next week. For potential wind advisory and
rainfall amounts, these details are very much in question. Early
signs point towards widespread rainfall and breezy/gusty wind
speeds over the eastside and areas near/along the coast as a very
dynamic low enters the area. The GFS in particular is showing a
155kt jet stream at 300mb which could go right over the forecast
area. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze this potential pattern
change.
-Guerrero
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for
     PZZ356-370-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion