Bancroft, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

097
FXUS61 KCAR 290629
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
229 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides south of the region today and a cold front
will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build down from
the north Tuesday into Wednesday, crest west of the region on
Thursday, then continue to the south on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure currently over the area will result in sunny skies early
this morning with above normal temperatures before clouds
associated with an approaching cold front work their way into
the north. The shortwave associated with the front has become
more amplified in recent model guidance which should result in
greater lift and increased potential for scattered showers.
Precipitation is expected to begin in the north during the late
afternoon and evening before moving south. Any rain should
dissipate over central Maine tonight just after midnight. There
is potential for some gusty winds associated with any showers
as model soundings currently show an inverted V profile
indicating ample dry air available for evaporative cooling of
rainfall and downward transport of higher winds aloft.
Behind the cold front, strengthening high pressure associated
with a steepening ridge builds in. Sunny skies are expected over
southern areas Tuesday whereas stratocumulus is likely for
northern areas. A weak post frontal trough may aid in the
development of a shower or two over far northeastern Aroostook
county. Confidence is low but a few of the REFS members develop
some precipitation and model soundings do show some weak
instability. Even if some shallow convection does get going it
may not reach the surface due to the dry low levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant deviation from the NBM this period.
A large area of high pressure centered near James Bay will
continue to build to our north across Quebec province through
Wednesday. The axis of an upper level trough across the Canadian
Maritimes will also cross the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies Tuesday
night with lows in the mid to upper 30s across northern areas
and the upper 30s to lower 40s across central and downeast.
Wednesday will be partly sunny across the north and mainly sunny
across central and Downeast areas. Afternoon highs on Wednesday
will be several degrees below normal for the time of year, with
mid 50s across the north and upper 50s to lower 60s for the
Bangor region, and Downeast areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant deviation from the NBM this period.
Wednesday night will be mainly clear with widespread frost
expected across northern and central areas, and patchy to areas
of frost across downeast. High pressure will continue to build
to the south of the region Thursday through Saturday. This will
result in mainly clear nights and mostly sunny days through
Saturday. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be near, or slightly
below normal, then moderate to above normal levels Friday and
Saturday. Sunday looks to be continued dry and unseasonably warm
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through Tuesday. A chance of showers for northern
terminals this evening which could produce some gusty winds and
virga. A low confidence chance of a brief shower Tuesday
morning for PQI/CAR/FVE. W winds around 10 kts today, becoming
NW with a frontal passage from N to south. NW winds around 5
kts tonight increasing to around 10 kts Tuesday with gusts 20-25
kts.
SHORT TERM:
Tue night through Fri... Mainly VFR conditions expected through
the period. MVFR cigs possible at times Tue night and Wed at
the Aroostook terminals. Gusty N to NW wind Wed afternoon,
becoming SW Thu through Fri at 5 to 15 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through
tonight. Long period swell from Hurricane Humberto will
gradually build to around 5 ft on Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Long period swell from Hurricane Humberto will
affect the outerwaters Tue night through Thu. Seas will build
to 5 to 8 ft by Wed with a wave period of 12 to 15 sec expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Some fire weather concerns this week. RH drops to a minimum of
around 30 to 40 % across the region today and Tuesday before
increasing to 40 to 50% Wednesday. RH drops again late week.
Meanwhile, winds will be breezy at about 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 20 mph today and Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Melanson
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Melanson/TWD
Marine...Melanson/TWD
Fire Weather...

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion