Ball, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

957
FXUS61 KRNK 092337
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
737 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of tranquil early autumn weather is expected for the
remainder of the week as a strong high pressure system settles
over the region. Clouds may creep into parts of the piedmont
from a disturbance along the coast, but overall, expecting a
period of comfortable weather with mild afternoon temperatures
and a notable cool crisp feel to the air during the early
mornings.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...
Little change is expected to the forecast as compared to our
early afternoon issuance. The anticipated low-mid level cloud
cover is working its way westward into far eastern portions of
the forecasts are. Route 29 still is looking like an
approximate western edge of extension by late tonight, lingering
into Wednesday. Some additional low-mid cloud cover developed
this afternoon along the NC/TN border. This cloud cover is
diurnally based and should gradually dissipate now that the sun
is setting. Patchy fog is expected late tonight, but be limited
to mainly the river valleys. Any fog which forms will dissipate
quickly at sunrise. Have updated hourly temperatures, dew
points, sky cover, and wind speed/gusts to better reflect the
latest observations and expected trends heading into tonight.
Confidence of the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Pleasant weather continues
Pattern features a 5h trough axis over the lower Ohio Valley
into the Deep South, with southerly flow aloft while at the
surface, high pressure wedges southward from New England associated
with a cool northeast wind. Overall expecting fair dry weather.
Only caveat is layer of low-mid level cloudiness that is
forecast to creep westward from the coast and into our piedmont
counties overnight and lingering through the day Wednesday. This
may impact temperatures for areas east of Highway 29 keeping
the highs a little cooler compared to areas farther west that
are expecting another day of full sunshine. In general,
temperatures will be cooler than normal areawide in-spite of
the sunshine...so another night-daytime cycle of pleasant
autumn weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1. Dry and quiet weather with seasonal temperatures.
Surface high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
through this forecast period, which will keep a prolonged period of
dry weather in the forecast for the area. A 500mb trough over the
eastern US will promote northwest to westerly flow aloft, and
temperatures will be cool through the middle of the week. Subsidence
via the high will suppress any chances for precipitation. Flow at
the surface will transition to more northeast and easterly Thursday
as the center of the high shifts east, and may transport some
moisture off the Atlantic, and could see some lower clouds develop
in the Piedmont. For the most part, dry air throughout most of the
atmosphere will keep even cloud cover at a minimum, aside from
passing high clouds from a front stalled to the south and east of
the area, along the eastern seaboard. That front will be pushed
eastward by another high pressure system originating in
southern Canada by the end of the work week.
Temperatures will be near normal through the period, with highs in
the mid 70s in the west, and low 80s in the east. Overnight will be
up to 5 degrees below normal, in the low 50s. Went on the lower end
of guidance for lows Thursday morning, with high pressure overhead
and good radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1. Dry weather, temperatures start trending a few degrees above
normal.
The stretch of dry weather and seasonal temperatures continues into
at least the beginning of the next work week. Surface high pressure
will remain wedged against the eastern side of the mountains through
most of the weekend. Aloft, a 500mb ridge builds over the south
central US and the trough over the eastern US starts to get squeezed
farther east, but still remains in the area. Long range guidance
does start to diverge during the weekend, with low pressure setting
up off the east coast and shortwave energy rounding the base of the
trough Saturday. However, with a lack of sufficient moisture in
place, confidence is high that the forecast will remain dry.
Temperatures will trend up a few degrees by the weekend, and highs
will reach up to 7 degrees above normal, generally in the low 80s in
the east and mid 70s in the west. Lows will be right around normal,
to a few degrees above, mainly in the 50s areawide.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Tuesday...
VFR conditions are expected across the vast majority of the
region through the conclusion of the latest valid TAF forecast
period, 00Z Thursday/8PM EDT Wednesday. The exception will be
some short-lived, late night patchy MVFR river fog which would
have the greatest potential to impact KLWB and KBCB. Winds
will generally remain light through the period.
Low end VFR ceilings and scattered clouds, 040-060 bases, will
work their way westward tonight with their western extent over or
just east of a KDAN-KLYH line by daybreak Wednesday. These
clouds will lingering through the day Wednesday.
A remark of AMD NOT SKED has been added to the KLWB TAF.
Observations are not being reported between roughly 2300Z and
1230Z as the tower is not staffed during this time to take
manual surface observations. Parts are on order for the
automated system.
Confidence in the above aviation weather scenario is moderate
to high.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions expected through the week, outside any patchy
late night/early morning mountain valley fog, and coastal cloud
creep into the piedmont.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...DS/PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion