Bailey, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS62 KRAH 200634
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
234 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor cold front will move south through NC later today
and tonight. High pressure will follow and extend across the Middle
Atlantic Sunday and Monday, then drift offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 810 PM Friday...
There is a strong signal in the model guidance that dense fog will
develop again tonight, similar to what happened late last night.
Have gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory primarily for areas
to the east of Interstate 95. Cannot rule out the possibility that
the advisory will need to be extended farther to the west, but east
of the interstate is where the confidence is highest for the fog to
occur, especially considering what was observed earlier. Lows will
generally be in the low to mid 60s, with some isolated upper 50s in
the usual cool spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...
* Mostly dry backdoor cold front should pass through the region
  Saturday night.
Above normal temperatures will continue Saturday ahead of a weak
backdoor cold frontal passage. High temperatures are expected to
reach the mid 80s in the north to the upper 80s in the south. A
backdoor cold front should reach the region from the north Saturday
night. A lack of moisture will diminish rain chances, however a very
isolated shower cannot be ruled out especially in the north Saturday
evening/night. Behind the front, a deck of low stratus looks likely
to develop in the north and east Saturday night. Low temperatures
should dip into the low-to-mid 60s overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
* Near to above normal temperatures expected through the period.
* Precipitation chances return early-middle next week, though some
  uncertainty exists.
Aloft, the departing s/w should lift newd away from the area on Sun.
Next, a nrn stream s/w should track ewd across the Great Lakes/srn
Ontario Sun night/Mon, while a srn stream s/w moves across the
lwr/mid MS Valley. Yet another nrn stream s/w will move across the
Pacific NW Sun night then continue sewd across the Intermountain
West Mon/Mon night. This s/w will become the dominant low mid-late
week. A longwave trough will amplify and, encompassing all three
shortwaves, extend from ern Quebec swwd to the cntl/srn Rockies by
Mon night/Tue. The trough and embedded shortwaves/lows will continue
progressing slowly ewd Tue and Wed, with the aforementioned dominant
s/w low closing off over the cntl Plains/mid-MS Valley on Wed. This
low could become cutoff west of the Appalachians by Thu, with
ridging to the east, however the location and strength of the low
varies between the available guidance. The low should drift slowly
nnewd through Fri, eventually getting picked up by the nrn stream
flow again sometime Fri or Sat. At the surface, the 1020+ mb high
over the Northeast will continue ridging swwd into the area as it
shifts ewd over the nrn Atlantic on Sun. Meanwhile, the inverted
trough and possibly embedded coastal low, will linger off the East
Coast, weakening/moving away from the region Sun night as the ridge
persists over the area. The ridge/high will gradually shift ewd and
offshore Mon/Mon night. A trough may move across the region Tue/Wed,
while a low pressure system develops over the mid-MS Valley and high
pressure progresses sewd across ern Canada. The high will try to
ridge swd across the mid-Atlantic as the low lifts nwd toward the
Great Lakes on Thu, however the differences noted aloft are also
present at the surface.
Precipitation: The forecast should be largely dry through Tue/Tue
night, although a stray shower cannot be ruled out on Sun. Forecast
uncertainty increases mid-late week noting the differences among the
guidance wrt the low pressure system to the west. With that in mind,
chances for showers/storm return for Wed through Fri.
Temperatures: Near to above normal temperatures should prevail
through the end of the week. Warmest day will be Wed or Thu, coolest
Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...
Temporary LIFR-IFR restrictions will be possible near and especially
northeast of RWI, FAY, and RDU this morning. However, sharply drier
air just above the surface, evident on observed soundings last
evening at MHX and WAL, will probably favor more dew than fog; and
areas of altocumulus bubbling along the I-95 corridor will also
limit radiational cooling and associated widespread radiation fog
formation. Flight restrictions in the 06Z TAFs are consequently not
as prolonged or impactful as in previous forecasts.
Otherwise, an isolated shower/storm will be possible (~15-20%
probability of occurrence) this afternoon from near AFP to MEB and
FAY, and also from near HNZ to IXA and RWI. Stratus and fog will
likely develop behind a backdoor cold front late tonight-Sunday
morning.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and fog will be possible again late Sunday
night-Monday morning. Showers/storms and flight restrictions are
expected mid to late this upcoming week.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ028-
043-078-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion