Axtell, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

284
FXUS63 KGID 172344
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Various chances of showers and thunderstorms will be present
  mainly today through Monday. No severe weather is expected at this
  time.
- Temperatures will mainly be in the 60s and 70s today and tomorrow
  then will warm up into the 70s and 80s Friday and Saturday. Highs
  will be in the 80s on Sunday which will be the warmest day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Today and tonight...
An upper low/trough is over the northern and central Plains.
Temperatures today across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas are cooler than yesterday with the cloud cover,
rain showers, and upper low nearby. Additional showers and
thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon with the upper low
nearby and especially along areas where the sky is clearing which
would result in higher instability. No severe storms are expected as
the higher CAPE, wind shear, upper lift, and instability will not be
combined. Light, mostly westerly winds are expected tonight with
lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Thursday through Saturday night...
The upper trough will extend from the northern Rockies and northern
Plains southward to the central and southern Plains on Thursday. A
cold front associated with the upper trough will be pushing into the
area Thursday afternoon which will result in high temperatures in
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible across the area (15% to around 45% chance) on Thursday. Low
temperatures Thursday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with
a surface high present. The upper trough will begin to move east of
the area on Friday with winds across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas becoming southerly. Temperatures
on Friday will warm up some from the previous day with highs in the
mid 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the mid
50s to low 60s with southerly winds. Some showers and storms may
develop (15% to 20% chance) Friday night as a shortwave moves across
the area. Temperatures will continue to warm up on Saturday with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures Saturday night
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. A low chance (15% to 20%) of
showers and thunderstorms continues Saturday and Saturday night.
Sunday through Tuesday...
An upper level trough will be over the central Plains on Sunday.
Southerly winds will be across south central and central Nebraska
and north central Kansas on Sunday with temperatures warming up into
the 80s. Low temperatures Sunday night will be a degree or two
warmer than the previous night. A slight chance (15% to 20%) of
showers and thunderstorms will be present Sunday night as a portion
of the upper trough moves overhead. The main portion of the upper
trough will move over the region on Monday with an associated cold
front pushing into the area. The high temperatures will depend on
the timing of the front with temperatures warming up along a surface
trough positioned ahead of the front. Temperatures Monday night will
be cooler with lows in the 50s. There is much uncertainty in regards
to temperatures on Tuesday due to the positioning of an upper low
with a possible temperature range of the 60s to the mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
A messy upper level pattern remains in place across the region
through this TAF period...and while low chances for
precipitation are in the forecast across the forecast area,
confidence is not high enough in any impact this evening/tonight
to insert a mention at the terminal sites. Main concern
tonight-early Thu morning will be with the potential for lowered
visibility and/or lower level cloud cover...have a tempo group
for MVFR conditions either side of sunrise. From mid-morning on
through the end of this period, models suggest there is better
potential for precipitation to be in closer proximity to the
terminal sites, so have PROB30 groups running from 15-00Z at
both sites for -SHRA/TSRA. Confidence in ceiling heights is not
high, currently have MVFR bases...not out of the question they
could drop into MVFR territory. Winds through much of the period
remains generally westerly and on the lighter side, near/below
10 MPH through midday, then 10-15 MPH possible through the
afternoon.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...ADP

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion