Astatula, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

533
FXUS62 KMLB 231826
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  mid-week with long period swells from distant Hurricane
  Gabrielle.
- Scattered shower and lightning storm chances through late-week
  as deeper moisture settles over central Florida.
- Slightly above normal high temperatures for the interior
  through Friday reaching into the lower 90s each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Current-Tonight... Sea breeze and differential heating boundaries
have kick started showers and storms across portions of east central
Florida this afternoon. Convection so far has been slow moving and
even stationary at times, and will have to continue to monitor
rainfall accumulations for localized flooding concerns. Coverage of
showers and storms is forecast to increase into the late afternoon
and evening, including areas of the Orlando metro. Localized
stronger storms along boundary collisions will be capable of
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, small hail, and
locally heavy rainfall accumulations of 1-3". Outside of storms,
high temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows remain muggy in the low to mid 70s.
Long period swell (~11 sec) from distant Major Hurricane Gabrielle
continues across the local Atlantic waters and coastline. This will
promote numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents at ALL
central Florida Atlantic beaches. Nice weather can be deceiving, and
entering the rough and dangerous surf is not advised! The HIGH rip
current threat is expected to persist through mid-week.
Wednesday-Friday... Mid-level troughing becomes established over the
eastern U.S. mid to late week. At the surface, an elongated area of
high pressure weakly stretches into Florida. Moisture lingers
through the period with modeled PWATs bouncing between 1.8-2.1".
Available low-level moisture, sea breeze development, and pulses of
vorticity aloft should continue to drive scattered showers and
storms each afternoon and evening. Best coverage each afternoon
remains near and south of Cape Canaveral and the Orlando metro (50-
60%). Weak shear profiles and poor mid-level lapse rates look to
limit well organized storm development through the period. However,
pockets of drier air aloft and passing shortwaves of vorticity may
allow for isolated stronger storms each day. Isolated strong storm
hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph,
small hail, and localized heavy rainfall. High temperatures range
the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast with low 90s across the
interior. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day, and added humidity
will produce peak heat index values between 100-105 degrees ahead of
afternoon showers and storms. Low temperatures hold in the low to
mid 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...The aforementioned mid-level trough
will move into north-central FL late Sat with recent medium range
models suggesting this system slows down and cuts-off across the
southeast U.S./north Gulf. What is more certain is that an unsettled
weather pattern will result with likely (60pct) PoPs on Sat and
scattered (40-50pct) showers and storms each day/evening thereafter.
PoPs could realize a bit lower late in the weekend and early next
week depending on amount of dry air pushing down the peninsula on
the back-side of the closed low - should this scenario play out.
High temps in the U80s to L90s on Sat, then U80s to around 90F Sun-
Tue. Peak heat indices a bit lower than recent days. Lows remain
consistent and mild in the L-M70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Long period swells from distant Hurricane Gabrielle continue to
promote poor boating conditions across the Gulf Stream and near
inlets this afternoon. Seas up to 6 ft begin to gradually subside
tonight, becoming 3-5 ft Wednesday and 2-3 ft Thursday. Weak high
pressure keeps winds light and variable through mid week, shifting
onshore as the afternoon sea breeze develops. A surface trough
approaching the local area will shift winds offshore into Friday,
generally remaining 10 kts or less. Isolated to scattered showers
and lightning storms are forecast each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to develop
through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening as the east
coast sea breeze moves inland. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur
with any of this activity, and a few stronger storms will be able to
produce strong wind gusts to 35-45 knots and potentially some small
hail. Greatest convective coverage is forecast to be focused near to
south of a line from KMCO/KISM to KTIX. Have tempo groups for MVFR
TSRA impacts for TAFs across this region, ranging from 18-20Z along
the coast and 19-22Z at KMCO/KISM. Have limited mention at KSFB/KLEE
to just VCTS and VCSH at KDAB. This activity will diminish into this
evening, with mostly dry conditions forecast overnight.
Winds will generally be out of the E/NE up to 7-9 knots behind the
inland moving sea breeze, but outflow from showers and storms will
produce variable and gusty winds at times. Winds diminish past
sunset, becoming light and variable tonight and remaining light
through early morning Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  74  90 /  10  30  10  50
MCO  75  94  75  92 /  10  50  20  60
MLB  76  89  75  89 /  20  40  20  50
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  20  50  20  50
LEE  74  93  75  91 /  10  50  20  50
SFB  75  93  75  92 /  10  40  10  60
ORL  76  93  75  91 /  10  50  20  60
FPR  74  89  74  90 /  20  50  20  60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion