Arthur, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

442
FXUS64 KMRX 060536
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
136 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and storms will move into the region before
daybreak. Severe storm potential is decreasing but gusty winds
(sub-severe) and localized flooding is still possible.
2. A lull in activity is likely in the early morning hours before
another round of showers and storms moves through the region mid to
late morning through the afternoon hours.
3. Drier and cooler weather will move in Sunday into Monday with no
rain expected during the next week.
Discussion:
In the upper levels, a deep trough remains over the Eastern U.S. The
cold front is still well upstream of the region currently (12AM EDT)
located over Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. CAMs indicate
that storms currently over Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee
will move into our region over the next few hours. Storms are
expected to maintain intensity or weaken a bit, with instability
decreasing into the nighttime hours. Flooding potential will still
have to be monitored mainly in places that have received high rain
amounts the past few days but overall flooding potential is
decreasing as guidance shows this wave of activity moving at a
decent pace.
A lull in activity is likely in the early morning hours before
another round of showers and storms develops mid or late morning
along the slow moving cold front. Timing of the scattered showers
and storms is a bit tricky with CAMs split between late morning and
afternoon. A few strong storms seem possible right along the front
but severe potential should be well east of our region where
instability is better. ML CAPE will max out around 800 J/kg across
our region. This will be a clean frontal passage Saturday evening
bringing cooler temps and lower dew points. Also, a noticeable wind
shift to northerly winds.
Sunday through next week looks dry with high pressure over the
Eastern U.S. and below normal temps Sunday and Monday. Mid week will
see a warming trend with temps returning to near normal. Above
normal temps will be possible by late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Isolated or scattered showers and storms are expected for the next
few hours. There will be a lull in storm activity in the early
morning hours before another round of showers and storms develops
mid or late morning along the slow moving cold front. This round
of weather will continue into the afternoon hours before the cold
front moves through in the early evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  61  80  58 /  60  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  59  77  53 /  70  20   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       76  57  77  53 /  70  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  58  74  48 /  70  30   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...McD

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion