Anton Chico, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

431
FXUS65 KABQ 091110 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
510 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Warmer and drier conditions will continue into Tuesday with
  isolated showers and storms the western and central high terrain
  and eastern plains this afternoon and evening.
- A more active weather pattern looks to begin Wednesday with the
  highest coverage of showers and storms expected on Friday,
  especially for locations across western and central New Mexico.
  South to southwest winds will also become breezy areawide during
  this period.
- Drier weather across western and central New Mexico Saturday
  with scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage along and east
  of the central mountain chain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A shortwave ridge centered over the state this morning will begin to
slowly move east into West Texas as a 569 dam 500 mb upper low moves
into the Pacific NW and northern CA. Daytime heating, a weak
disturbance overtopping the ridge, and modest PWATS values of 0.6 to
0.8 inches due to south-southwest flow will result in the
development of isolated gusty shower and thunderstorms with very
small wetting footprints across the western and central high terrain
and nearby lower elevations in central NM. PWATS around 0.9 inches
across the eastern plains will result in some isolated wetter shower
and thunderstorm activity. If any storms were to develop near the TX
border, they will be capable of becoming strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts and large hail being the main threats due to
SBCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear values of 25
to 30 kts. It is important to note that this is a very conditional
threat like yesterday. Any shower and thunderstorm activity should
dissipate or move off into west Texas around sunset.
A slightly better coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected across northwest and north central NM and near the AZ
border on Wednesday due to increasing moist and upslope south-
southwest flow ahead of the upper low circulation over the Nevada
Great Basin. PWATS will be around 0.7 to 0.9 inches across this part
of the state which is around the 90th percentile for early to mid
September. Some isolated showers and storms also across central and
northeast NM. Storm motion will be to the northeast at around 10 to
20 mph with rainfall amounts of up to half an inch across far
western and northwest NM in the heaviest cores. A few storms could
become strong across northwest NM due to the increasing upper level
flow ahead of the low.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Thursday will be similar to Wednesday with the better shower and
thunderstorm coverage favoring far western, northwest, and north
central NM. Flow aloft will continue to increase as the upper low
nudges east-northeast to over Idaho and northern NV. Effective bulk
shear values to around 30 to 40 kts across this part of the state
will allowing a few storms to potentially become strong to severe.
Areas along and east of the central mountain chain, including the
HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars look to be mostly dry on Thursday due to
being near the upper high centroid over the Permian Basin and TX Big
Bend. Come Friday, the upper low moves over the northern Rockies
with drier westerly air moving into southern CA and much of AZ south
of the upper low. This will set up a defined moisture boundary along
the AZ/NM border with PWATS below 0.50 inches west of the boundary
and around 0.8 to 1 inch along and east of the boundary. This
moisture boundary will result in the highest storm coverage of the
week for western and central NM with areas along and north of I-40
and along and west of I-25 being the most favored. Storms will have
the potential to become strong to severe with effective bulk shear
values of 35 to 45 kts. With the quick east-northeast storm motions,
it will take multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to result
in flash flooding. Ruidoso looks to be on the southern edge of most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday. Storms move into
northeast and east central NM late Friday evening slowly tapering
off Friday night as drier westerly flow moves into western NM.
The upper low slowly moves northeast into the northern Great Plains
on Saturday weakening and opening up as it does so. It`s northeast
progress gets slowed due to a blocking upper high over central
Canada. The position of the upper low will help push the drier
westerly air into western and central NM Saturday. Higher moisture
with PWATs around 0.8 to 1 inch lingers along and east of the
central mountain chain helping to keep a scattered coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across this part of the state. Uncertainty
remains for Sunday as guidance varies on how far east this drier
westerly flow moves through the state. This is due to a 2nd upper
low moving into the Pacific Coast. An upper low digging further
south will keep the higher moisture and resultant scattered shower
and thunderstorm coverage across southern and eastern NM while a
shallower upper low along with weak shortwave ridging over the
desert SW will result in the drier westerly flow making more
progress east and little to no shower and thunderstorm activity
along and east of the central mountain chain. Regardless, the wetter
and active weather looks to likely return next Monday as the 2nd
upper low moves over the Great Basin placing the state under moist
south-southwest flow once again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Isolated gusty showers and thunderstorms across the western and
central high terrain and nearby lower elevations of central NM
this afternoon and early evening. Kept PROB30s at KABQ and KAEG
for gusty and erratic winds from this activity. Still did not have
enough confidence to include one at KLVS based on the current
guidance. Some potential development of wetter showers and
thunderstorms across the eastern plains late this afternoon with
possible impacts to KROW and KTCC. Storms could become strong to
severe near the TX border this afternoon if they were to develop.
The main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Any
shower and thunderstorm activity should dissipate or move off into
west Texas around sunset with lingering mid level clouds overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
No critical fire weather conditions expected through the forecast
period. Isolated dry showers and storms across the western and
central high terrain and nearby lower elevations of central New
Mexico today with the main fire weather hazard being dry lightning
starts. Breezy south winds with shower and storm coverage increasing
across far western, northwest and north central New Mexico Wednesday
and Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage peaks on Friday
across western and central NM. Faster storm motions will help to
limit the flash flood threat on recent burn scars across northern
New Mexico. Drier westerly flow looks to move into western and
central New Mexico on Saturday with scattered shower and
thunderstorm coverage along and east of the central mountain chain.
A potential break in shower and thunderstorm activity areawide on
Sunday before returning next Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  61  87  60 /   5  10  30  40
Dulce...........................  84  45  82  47 /  10  10  40  50
Cuba............................  82  54  82  53 /  20  20  30  40
Gallup..........................  84  51  84  52 /  10   5  20  10
El Morro........................  81  52  82  53 /  20  20  40  30
Grants..........................  85  52  84  54 /  20  20  40  30
Quemado.........................  83  53  84  54 /  20  20  20  10
Magdalena.......................  83  59  84  59 /  20  10  10  10
Datil...........................  81  53  81  54 /  20  10  20  10
Reserve.........................  89  53  88  54 /  10   5   5  10
Glenwood........................  93  60  92  59 /  10   5  10  10
Chama...........................  78  47  76  47 /  20  20  40  50
Los Alamos......................  80  57  80  57 /  10  10  20  20
Pecos...........................  81  55  81  54 /   5  10  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  79  53  79  52 /   5  10  10  20
Red River.......................  70  44  70  45 /  10  10  20  10
Angel Fire......................  75  39  74  40 /   5   5  10   5
Taos............................  83  51  82  51 /   5  10  10  10
Mora............................  78  49  78  49 /  10   5  20  10
Espanola........................  87  56  87  57 /   5  10  10  20
Santa Fe........................  82  58  82  58 /   5  10  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  86  56  85  57 /   0  10   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  63  91  64 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  62  93  63 /  10  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  64  91  64 /  10  10   5  20
Belen...........................  92  60  92  60 /  10  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  91  62  92  62 /  10  10   5  20
Bosque Farms....................  91  59  92  60 /  10  10   5  10
Corrales........................  92  63  92  63 /  10  10  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  91  60  92  62 /  10  10   5  10
Placitas........................  87  62  87  62 /  10  10   5  20
Rio Rancho......................  91  63  91  63 /  10  10  10  20
Socorro.........................  94  63  94  64 /  10  10   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  57  83  57 /  10  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  84  59  84  59 /  10  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  85  54  85  54 /   5   5  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  52  87  52 /   0   5   5  10
Clines Corners..................  81  56  81  55 /   5   5   5   5
Mountainair.....................  85  56  85  56 /  10  10  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  85  57  84  55 /  10  10   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  88  62  87  60 /  10  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  80  57  79  55 /  20   5  10   0
Capulin.........................  81  52  82  54 /   5  20   5   0
Raton...........................  84  50  84  52 /   5  10  10   0
Springer........................  86  51  87  52 /   0   5   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  82  53  82  52 /   5  10  10   5
Clayton.........................  89  61  89  62 /   5  20   0   0
Roy.............................  86  57  85  56 /  10   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  92  62  92  61 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  88  60  88  59 /  10  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  91  61  90  59 /   0  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  93  62  92  60 /  10  10   0   0
Portales........................  93  62  92  59 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  92  62  92  60 /  10  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  96  64  94  62 /  20  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  90  58  90  56 /  20  10   0   0
Elk.............................  87  57  87  54 /  20  20   5   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion