Anawalt, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

844
FXUS61 KRLX 130514
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
114 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably warm this weekend into next
week under high pressure`s rule. Heightened fire weather
risk through next week due to very dry conditions in place.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...
All is quiet on the front with high pressure maintaining our
arid spell. Clear skies and cool temperatures in the 50s will
promote another round of valley fog this morning. Fog could be
locally dense in spots. Otherwise, dry weather, clear skies and
very warm temperatures persist for our Saturday.
High temperatures will be a bit above normal with the lowlands
reaching the mid to upper 80s and the mountains staying in the
upper 60s to the lower 80s. These temperatures paired up with
dew points in the 40s and lower 50s will create relative
humidity percentages in the upper 20s and lower 30s across much
of the area this afternoon. This scenario creates a heightened
risk for wildfire start this afternoon. Luckily, winds will be
light (below 10 mph) which will keep fire spread from running
rampant. Therefore, no fire weather headlines are expected at
this time, unless special circumstances arise.
Another clear and calm night is expected tonight with more
valley/river fog in the forecast. A slight disturbance, a weak
front, is expected to move by late tonight into Sunday. Rain
chances are nonexistent with its passage, but some high-level
clouds are possible and this may disrupt the fog formation. Low
temperatures will be a bit warmer with a few locations across
the lowlands only dropping down to around 60 degrees.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...
Upper level ridging will begin to build into the Ohio Valley
Saturday night, keeping the region dry. A weak disturbance passing
well to the north may introduce some high cloudiness, but a very dry
low-level airmass will preclude any chance of measurable rainfall.
Continued clear skies and calm conditions Saturday night will allow
for another round of valley fog development into Sunday morning.
The upper ridge will amplify and center itself over the Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys Sunday into Monday. This will result in a
continued warming trend, with afternoon high temperatures reaching
the upper 80s across the Metro Valley and southern coalfields, with
some spots potentially touching 90 degrees on Monday. These
temperatures are around 10 degrees above normal for mid-
September. Continued dry conditions and afternoon relative
humidity values in the 30s will maintain an elevated fire
weather concern.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...
The dominant upper level ridge will persist through the first half
of the new work week, maintaining hot and dry conditions. Highs on
Tuesday will again be in the upper 80s to near 90 in the lowlands.
Confidence in the forecast begins to decrease by the middle of the
week. Global models indicate the potential for a low pressure system
to develop off the southeast coast, attempting to retrograde
westward underneath the ridge. While there is considerable
uncertainty in the track and intensity of this feature, it
represents the first potential for rainfall in over a week. For now,
central guidance confines slight chances for showers to the eastern
mountain counties, particularly along the windward slopes, from
Wednesday afternoon onward. Elsewhere, central guidance remains dry
with temperatures slowly moderating back toward seasonal normals by
the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 AM Saturday...
Some dense fog is expected to form in the river and mountain
valleys tonight. Impacts will be similar to last night with
scattered MVFR and IFR restrictions. CRW, EKN, and PKB are sites
of higher confidence for these conditions.
Fog will lift and scatter at all sites by ~14z this morning
giving way to SKC, light and variable winds, and VFR conditions.
Some mid-level clouds may form late in the morning into early
afternoon as light winds begin with mixing.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location, timing, and impacts associated
with fog development tonight may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                   SAT 09/13/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in valley fog each morning through
at least early next week.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion