Am Falls, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

440
FXUS65 KPIH 271931
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
131 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few locations will reach 80 degrees today and Sunday, but
temperatures turn much cooler for the upcoming week.
- Showers and thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon in the south,
spread northward Monday morning and continue through at least
Tuesday.
- Next frontal system may arrive by next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Hardly a single blip on the satellite imagery across East Idaho
early this afternoon. High pressure keeps skies clear through
the evening, then some moisture begins to creep into the
southern portions of the forecast area overnight ahead of
opening upper low across the southwest begins to shift
northeast. Sunday sees shower and thunderstorm potential
increase across the south and east, but can`t completely rule
out some isolated development over the central mountains either
as we see some growing support for that in the high- res models
today. Temperatures start to moderate Sunday by a few degrees,
though Magic Valley and Raft River areas could still see
temperatures reach the lower 80s. Would not be surprised to see
a few showers linger after midnight Sunday night, though most of
the activity should dissipate during the evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Moving into the work week, models remain confident in pushing a
shortwave out of the base of the deep Pacific trough inland Monday,
ejecting it across Idaho Tuesday. Most of the precipitation appears
to be holding to the west for Monday, though isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain possible Monday afternoon across
the Snake Plain and eastern highlands as well. Precipitation band
works across the region Monday night into Tuesday, for the best
chances of rainfall region-wide. The late Monday time frame may be
the period of most concern for burn scar impacts across the central
mountains, and heavier rainfall potential from embedded
thunderstorms may be a concern to keep in mind for the next couple
forecast cycles. Temperatures cool Monday and Tuesday behind the
warmth from this weekend, with daytime highs by Tuesday in the mid
60s to lower 70s. Moving into the latter half of the week, ensemble
clusters have split with nearly half retaining a closed low centered
off the Seattle/Vancouver coast while the rest open the low and
begin to weaken the trough. Flow remains southwest across Idaho with
some moisture still available to maintain precipitation chances. NBM
blend keeps isolated to widely scattered showers across higher
elevations, drying most of the region out into Thursday but keeping
higher chances across the central mountains closer to the trough
feature. Next shortwave ejects out of the trough and across East
Idaho for the Friday/Saturday time frame, with renewed precipitation
chances most areas associated with a stronger frontal passage.
Timing of the front could have some implications for wind potential
late in the week, but that would be tough to nail down this far
out.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Will be continued VFR with mainly light winds and clear skies
this afternoon into tonight. Will likely see an increase in mid
and high level clouds early Sunday morning through the day. For
now kept any vicinity showers out of area but moisture will be
on the increase and showers more likely after 18Z time frame on
Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Will start to see a bit of a pattern change with a return to a
chance of showers Sunday night and continuing with a chance daily
through next weekend.  Will see above normal temperatures continuing
through Thursday then a significant cool down Friday into next
weekend.  Wettest days likely Tuesday and then next Friday and
Saturday.  Very high elevations could see snow next Friday and
Saturday, but low probabilities that far out.  Windiest days also
likely next Friday and Saturday behind strong cold frontal passage.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...GK

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion