Alcolu, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

745
FXUS62 KCAE 182352
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
752 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a few isolated showers again Friday, the area
remains generally dry under a retreating upper trough and
building surface high pressure through the weekend. Warming
temps can also be expected through the weekend. Slightly cooler
temperatures return for the start of the next week with a
potential for rain increasing slightly toward midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- Staying on the dry side overnight but patchy fog will be
  possible.
A shortwave traversing the area in the broader troughing
pattern over the region allowed some isolated showers to form
across the CSRA and into the eastern Midlands this afternoon as
PWAT`s sit around 1.3-1.4". The sea breeze is now pushing into
the eastern Midlands but the loss of heating and increasing
inhibition has not allowed any further convective development
along it and thus while a couple sprinkles could be possible in
the next hour or so, mostly dry conditions are expected to
prevail the remainder of the evening and overnight tonight.
Behind the sea breeze, generous low level moisture combined with
strong radiational cooling conditions overnight should allow
for patchy fog to develop, especially across the Coastal Plain
and into the eastern Midlands. Outside of this, overnight lows
are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry conditions continue.
The main upper level trough is forecast to continue lifting out
of the area for Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a shortwave
trough is forecast to move across the region Friday. This
shortwave could spark and isolated shower or storm Friday
afternoon, but probabilities are around 10% at this time. An
even lower chance for shower activity is forecast for Saturday,
though a rogue shower can`t be ruled out for the far western
portions of the forecast area. Temperature-wise, with the upper
trough lifting and high pressure building in, highs are expected
to be near 90 each day for the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Slightly cooler with slight chances for rain late in the period.
Surface high pressure is expected to control the weather as we
head into the week ahead. All in all, the first half of the week
is expected to be pretty normal. A check of the NAEFS
situational awareness table shows most variables in the average
range through much of the forecast period. However, as we head
toward midweek, an upper trough begins moving toward the area,
but guidance differs on the timing. Nonetheless, the approaching
trough could be enough to trigger some much needed rainfall to
the area toward the end of the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monitoring for Restrictions Towards Daybreak, Especially at OGB
and AGS....
Earlier showers in the Augusta area have dissipated with the
loss of daytime heating, leaving the region dry for the
remainder of the evening into the overnight hours with mainly
clear skies. The combination of weak low-level winds and
radiational cooling should result in areas of patchy fog around
daybreak. With this in mind, a TEMPO is in place for all
terminals around 12Z. Guidance is suggesting that fog will be
thickest around AGS, therefore that site has a predominant 3SM
visibility from 06Z with a TEMPO for 1/2SM visibility towards
daybreak. Would not be surprised if we saw significant swings in
flight categories at AGS, as is typical for that location due
to the influence of the river. OGB may also see quick
transitions tonight. Any fog should burn off quickly after
sunrise with SCT cumulus decks developing around midday and
perhaps a few showers possible later in the TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will
hinder widespread rainfall and restrictions. However short
periods of early morning fog/stratus remains possible at AGS and
OGB through the extended.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion