Alapaha, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

840
FXUS62 KTAE 271025
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
625 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A broad upper trough axis swinging through the region pushes the
cold front east and past the Tri-State area later today. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms (25-50%) are forecast mainly along/ahead
of the front - primarily in the Eastern FL Big Bend and I-75
corridor. Isolated convection is possible around the Wiregrass this
afternoon from cyclonic flow aloft where slight-chance PoPs (15-20%)
are in place. Post-frontal NW winds then push drier, more stable
air, which should effectively end precipitation tonight into Sunday
morning. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper
80s while lows drop below 70 degrees.
Given the widespread rainfall observed yesterday and last night,
light to calm winds, and stabilizing airmass, we expect decent
coverage of patchy fog for most locations this morning. Another
round of fog development appears likely along/east of the ACF basin
during the Sunday pre-dawn hrs where a relatively more moist airmass
should still linger to support formation.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The upper pattern to end the weekend will be characterized by
upper ridging through the central US with a cutoff low in the
desert southwest and another upper low in the southeast. At the
surface, sprawling surface high pressure will be in place through
much of the eastern half of the CONUS. As well, PTC 9 will be
located in the Bahamas well off the coast of southeast Florida.
Much uncertainty remains in the development and track of PTC 9
into next week. The official NHC track slows or stalls it off the
SC/GA coast Tuesday and Wednesday. From that point, models diverge
on whether it moves west into the Carolinas (more influence from
the upper low) or moves east further into the Atlantic (more
influence from Hurricane Humberto).
Our forecast remains generally dry with the exception of slight
chances for rain around the I75 corridor in closer proximity to
moisture from the Atlantic and east/northeast flow. Increased
northeast winds mid to late week on the backside of PTC 9 and
strengthening ridging to the north with wedging down the southern
Appalachians. Highs Sunday through Wednesday will be in the mid 80s
to near 90 degrees. Cold air damming and strengthening northeast
winds beyond Wednesday will push highs slightly lower to the upper
70s to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Fairly widespread IFR/LIFR across the area with the exception of
the I75 corridor which these degraded flight conditions may
develop into VLD/I75 area before daybreak. Hi-res guidance depicts
a gradual improvement to VFR into mid/late morning as winds become
established from the northwest behind a cold frontal passage. A
few isolated showers may occur through the day but confidence is
low to include at the sites. Overnight, low cigs develop in
southern Georgia with VLD possibly impacted in the overnight
hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Gentle northwesterly breezes become established today behind a
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage
through the day, exiting to the east of our waters this afternoon.
Winds will become moderate early next week as the pressure
gradient between Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and building high
pressure over the central and northeast parts of the US tightens
with advisory level winds becoming increasingly likely mid to late
next week. Seas will be around 1 to 2 feet through early next
week, increasing to 2 to 4 feet mid to late week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A cold front looks to complete its passage later today with
chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly focusing east of the
Apalachicola and Flint River Basin. Isolated convection appears
possible in the afternoon even behind the front. Winds become
northerly in the front`s wake with low afternoon dispersions
around the I-75 corridor. Mostly dry conditions prevail Sunday
and Monday as surface high pressure to the north prompts
northeasterly winds. High dispersions are forecast Sunday
afternoon over parts of SE AL and the FL Panhandle.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Radar estimated rainfall amounts on average were around an inch
in most locations though some pockets of 2-3 inches were noted in
the Florida Panhandle and adjacent southeast Alabama and along
thee coast through the Florida Big Bend.
Lingering showers will persist into the afternoon today as a cold
front continues eastward. Heading into early next week, low rain
chances will exist along the I75 corridor but most locations will
be dry through the period. Therefore, there are no widespread
flash or river flooding expected through late next week.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  69  89  69 /  20  10  10  10
Panama City   86  69  90  70 /  10   0  10  10
Dothan        85  66  88  67 /  10   0  10   0
Albany        85  67  88  69 /  20   0  10  10
Valdosta      85  68  88  69 /  40  10  10  10
Cross City    87  69  90  70 /  50  20  30  10
Apalachicola  85  71  87  71 /  10   0  10  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion