885 FXUS64 KMOB 240542 AFDMOBArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The southern portion of a a large posivively-tiled upper trough extending from southeast Canada to the southern Rockies will swing east-southeast with the base reaching eastern Texas by midnight Thursday night. The trough then pumps on the brakes and devolves into a small trough or a weak cut-off low over the southeast CONUS over the weekend into early next week. A surface low pressure area moving eastward along the Arkansas/Missouri border will lift northeastward and reach the eastern Great Lakes region by early Thursday morning, with an associated weak cold front approaching our region from the northwest. This front is expected to enter into our area late Thursday night and stall near the coast on Friday before making a slight push offshore Friday night. The front will then meander over the northern Gulf into the weekend before eventually dissipating early next week.
Severe thunderstorms...A band of mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into southeast Mississippi and inland southwest Alabama this afternoon as PWATs improve to between 2.0- 2.25 inches west of the Alabama River. With a southerly low level synoptic wind flow persisting along with plenty of sunshine, inland temperatures will climb to between 90 to 95 degrees (5-10 degrees above normal). As a result, the atmosphere will have had all day to heat up with MLCAPE values reaching between 1200 to 1800 J/kg. The best dynamics, however, will remain displaced northwest of our area. SPC still has a marginal risk for severe weather encompassing the northwestern portion of our forecast area for the afternoon/evening hours. Some of these storms have the potential to become strong with the highest gusty surface winds ranging from 45 to 55 mph, with brief locally heavy downpours possible, but not likely. This convective activity is expected to diminish by late evening before additional development spreads toward the coastal sections late tonight into Thursday, followed by numerous to widespread showers and general thunderstorms reforming across all inland areas throughout the day. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will return on Friday.
The low temperature Wednesday night will be well above seasonal norms in the low to mid 70s, or about 9 to 12 degrees above normal. Lows will then remain above normal through the reminder of the forecast. High temperatures cool to around seasonal norms Thursday and Friday due to the higher rain chances, before rebounding to slightly above normal over the weekend into early next week. /22
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast with light and variable winds increasing out of the south-southwest during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in from the northwest leading to temporary localized reductions in ceilings and visbys during the early evening into the overnight hours across southeastern Mississippi. BB-8
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.MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with occasional showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Friday. Otherwise, a light southerly flow today will shift southwesterly tonight and westerly on Thursday. A light offshore flow will occur Friday night through much of the weekend as a weak frontal boundary pushes offshore. /22
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 85 68 86 65 88 65 88 / 40 80 60 40 10 10 10 10 Pensacola 76 87 72 84 68 87 68 87 / 20 70 70 60 20 10 10 10 Destin 76 85 73 83 71 86 70 87 / 10 50 70 70 30 20 10 10 Evergreen 71 87 67 86 63 89 61 90 / 30 80 60 50 10 10 10 10 Waynesboro 70 82 64 84 61 86 60 87 / 60 80 30 20 0 0 0 10 Camden 70 82 66 83 62 85 61 86 / 50 80 40 30 10 10 0 10 Crestview 70 88 68 84 63 88 62 89 / 10 70 70 70 20 20 10 10
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.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion