Agricola, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

885
FXUS64 KMOB 240542
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The southern portion of a a large posivively-tiled upper trough
extending from southeast Canada to the southern Rockies will swing
east-southeast with the base reaching eastern Texas by midnight
Thursday night. The trough then pumps on the brakes and devolves
into a small trough or a weak cut-off low over the southeast CONUS
over the weekend into early next week. A surface low pressure area
moving eastward along the Arkansas/Missouri border will lift
northeastward and reach the eastern Great Lakes region by early
Thursday morning, with an associated weak cold front approaching our
region from the northwest. This front is expected to enter into our
area late Thursday night and stall near the coast on Friday before
making a slight push offshore Friday night. The front will then
meander over the northern Gulf into the weekend before eventually
dissipating early next week.
Severe thunderstorms...A band of mostly scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move into southeast Mississippi and inland
southwest Alabama this afternoon as PWATs improve to between 2.0-
2.25 inches west of the Alabama River. With a southerly low level
synoptic wind flow persisting along with plenty of sunshine, inland
temperatures will climb to between 90 to 95 degrees (5-10 degrees
above normal). As a result, the atmosphere will have had all day to
heat up with MLCAPE values reaching between 1200 to 1800 J/kg. The
best dynamics, however, will remain displaced northwest of our area.
SPC still has a marginal risk for severe weather encompassing the
northwestern portion of our forecast area for the afternoon/evening
hours. Some of these storms have the potential to become strong with
the highest gusty surface winds ranging from 45 to 55 mph, with
brief locally heavy downpours possible, but not likely. This
convective activity is expected to diminish by late evening before
additional development spreads toward the coastal sections late
tonight into Thursday, followed by numerous to widespread showers
and general thunderstorms reforming across all inland areas
throughout the day. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
return on Friday.
The low temperature Wednesday night will be well above seasonal
norms in the low to mid 70s, or about 9 to 12 degrees above normal.
Lows will then remain above normal through the reminder of the
forecast. High temperatures cool to around seasonal norms Thursday
and Friday due to the higher rain chances, before rebounding to
slightly above normal over the weekend into early next week. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast with light and
variable winds increasing out of the south-southwest during the
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
move in from the northwest leading to temporary localized
reductions in ceilings and visbys during the early evening into
the overnight hours across southeastern Mississippi. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected outside of
locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with
occasional showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Friday.
Otherwise, a light southerly flow today will shift southwesterly
tonight and westerly on Thursday. A light offshore flow will occur
Friday night through much of the weekend as a weak frontal
boundary pushes offshore. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  85  68  86  65  88  65  88 /  40  80  60  40  10  10  10  10
Pensacola   76  87  72  84  68  87  68  87 /  20  70  70  60  20  10  10  10
Destin      76  85  73  83  71  86  70  87 /  10  50  70  70  30  20  10  10
Evergreen   71  87  67  86  63  89  61  90 /  30  80  60  50  10  10  10  10
Waynesboro  70  82  64  84  61  86  60  87 /  60  80  30  20   0   0   0  10
Camden      70  82  66  83  62  85  61  86 /  50  80  40  30  10  10   0  10
Crestview   70  88  68  84  63  88  62  89 /  10  70  70  70  20  20  10  10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion