Afton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

577
FXUS64 KLUB 041112
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through this
   weekend.
- Slightly cooler weather and a chance of rain enters the
   forecast during the early to middle part of this coming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The stagnant upper level ridge which has been in place over our
region for the past several days has finally begun to deamplify
early this morning as a potent shortwave mid/upper level trough over
the Great Basin steadily tracks eastward. Meanwhile, a broad and
more disorganized area of upper troughing persists over the Gulf
Coast. The net result will be a modest strengthening of southwest
flow aloft over our area through the course of today as the ridge
collapses. Although the largest height falls will be well to our
north and west, layer thicknesses and 850mb temperatures will both
decrease enough to result in a cool down of a few degrees today
relative to the past couple of days with highs mainly in the mid to
upper 80s across the region this afternoon. Dry conditions will
continue today and tonight, but deepening lee surface troughing east
of the Rockies associated with the strong wave aloft crossing the
mountains will result in a breezier day across West Texas with
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph especially over the Caprock. Expect
these winds to only weaken slightly tonight, resulting in mild
overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Minimal change to the extended forecast, which features minor
cooling (towards normal) through the middle of the coming week,
along with a return of rain/storm chances for the region from late
Monday through Wednesday.
The trough moving through the Intermountain West today will make
quick headway across the northern High Plains and Upper Midwest
Sunday morning before lifting into south-central Canada by Sunday
evening. Breezy southerly winds will continue over the southern High
Plains on Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft persists upstream of
the departing shortwave and downstream of a broad positively tilted
trough reloading over the western CONUS. Even so, cooler Canadian air
will advance southward through the northern and central High Plains,
behind the lead wave, on Sunday. It still appears the frontal zone
will initially stall to the north of the CWA late Sunday, keeping
any cooling and better rain chances to our north with it. That said,
there are weak signals that an attendant surface trough trailing
southwestward from the front could trigger isolated high-based
convection as far south as the southwest Texas Panhandle Sunday
evening. Forecast sounding aren`t very impressive, with minimal
instability and a deep, dry subcloud layer, tending to favor virga
or a few sprinkles, but very low chances of measurable rain.
Additional jet energy passing by well to the north of the region,
along with convection along/near the front, is expected to give the
frontal zone a nudge southward on Monday. This could bring the front
near or into our northwestern/northern zones by Monday afternoon,
complete with minor cooling and increasing rain chances. Thereafter,
there is decent agreement the frontal zone will hang out in the
region through the middle of the week before washing out as upper
ridging begins to rebuild over the region. Although not particularly
supportive aloft through the middle of the week, an increase in mid-
upper level moisture will help to keep at least a chance of rain,
perhaps even a few rumbles of thunder, in the forecast. The best
chances will favor the northern zones Monday afternoon and night
before expanding to much of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
current NBM ends mentionable PoPs from east-to-west on Wednesday, as
drier air advects in from the east and mid-upper ridging starts to
reassert itself. However, if the upper ridge is slower to build and
the mid-level moisture slower to thin, as the 00Z GFS suggests, rain
chances could linger into Thursday. Regardless, a warming and drying
trend is favored toward the end of the work week as ridging aloft
becomes increasingly dominate again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. South winds
will become gusty late morning through afternoon.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion